James S. Robbins, US News and World Report: Iran's Strait Games
This is how Iran can win a standoff over the Strait of Hormuz.
When Iran threatens to close the Strait of Hormuz, our knee-jerk response might be to say, "Make our day." But unfortunately we might have to take the threat, uttered repeatedly by Iranian officials, more seriously than we first expect.
Just last month, General Hossein Salami, the deputy commander of Iran's Revolutionary Guard, said that Iranian forces will close the Strait if the United States "threatens" Iran. "If the Americans and their regional allies want to pass through the Strait of Hormuz and threaten us," he said, "we will not allow any entry." The comment came days after Iran's Supreme Leader, the Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, publicly criticized the U.S. presence in the Persian Gulf.
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WNU editor: Iran will not need to engage U.S. forces to stop the oil flow through the strait. One missile strike on an oil tanker would send insurance rates soaring .... thereby making it impossible for anyone to transport oil because of the sky-high premiums (or no premiums) that would then become the norm. And in the event of a shooting war .... the U.S. and its allies may win, but the repercussions from such a conflict would last for years, starting with sky-high oil prices and a probable deep global recession. And as for marine traffic through the strait .... a risky endeavour that would definitely not be worth the risk.
2 comments:
Nukes are for refineries.
These straits are no longer of vital strategic interest to the US. If the Iranians want to self inflict a wound, then "be my guest" and "make my day."
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