A report released by the Rand Corporation Friday illuminates four hypothetical scenarios for a US-China war.
According to the report, across a time frame from 2015 to 2025, as Chinese military capabilities improve, the US can no longer be certain a war would develop as it expects, nor can it achieve a decisive victory once a war breaks out with China. The closer to 2025, the more difficulties the US will have in defeating China, but yet it does not mean China is bound to succeed.
The report holds that no matter what type of war, China will suffer a heavier loss than the US, not only militarily, but also economically and politically.
For instance, if the US suffers a 5 to 10 percent decrease in GDP, China will suffer 25 to 35 percent. War will lead to intensified partisan squabbling in the US, but China will be plagued by chaos and ethnic division. The report also believes that if a war erupts in 2015, the US losses of surface naval and air forces, aircraft carriers, and regional air bases will be significant, but Chinese losses would be much greater.
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WNU Editor: This article does not support the headline. The Chinese are acknowledging (in this article) that in any war with the U.S. the loses for China will be huge .... but they still believe that they will persevere. As to what is my take .... I have trouble seeing how anyone can be a victor in such a conflict, but I do know that China's dependence on trade for its economic growth and stability will be significantly hit, and in a population that has high hopes for a better life .... this will not be a good scenario for Beijing. In short .... the Chinese will support any war that they find themselves in .... Chinese nationalism is very strong and it should never be underestimated .... but when such a hypothetical conflict is over and the hardships become normal .... watch-out.
3 comments:
Well, coldly said, the sooner the best. USA will take a big hit because China is not a small adversary, but the gap is still in the side of America (...for now), and China will be hit so hardly for decades. Just the time for being ready for the next clash.
Russia + China + North Korea + Iran vs US + South Korea + Japan + US allies
but
earth needs a good king who will respect and protect women, children and nature always
China's plan for dominance can be summed up as "Open for Business",
The US's plan for dominance can be summed up as " If we can't own it, we will break it".
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