Is Russia Preparing For A New War In Ukraine?

The International Military-Technical Forum “Army 2016”. © SPUTNIK/ EVGENI BIYATOV

Dave Majumdar, National Interest: Is Russia Preparing for War?

Is Russia preparing for a new war in Ukraine? The answer—according to some of the best analysts specializing in the region—is: Maybe.

Some, like former The National Interest editor, Dr. Nikolas Gvosdev, currently the Jerome E. Levy Chair for Economic Geography and National Security at the U.S. Naval War College, suggest that Moscow could be preparing for military action in Ukraine. Gvosdev—who had been asked to make the case for why Russia might embark on such a course of action for an evening discussion at the Center for the National Interest—noted that he was speaking in a personal capacity using open-source materials. Simon Saradzhyan, director of the Russia Matters Project at Harvard University’s Belfer Center made the counter argument explaining why it is highly unlikely Moscow would embark upon a new adventure in Ukraine.

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WNU Editor: Ever few weeks an article is posted that wonders if Russia is going to invade Ukraine .... and this article is just continuing that tradition. I always say the same thing .... "if you break it .... you own it". A Russian intervention into Ukraine will mean that Russia will then be responsible for cleaning and fixing the mess .... even if it a limited intervention. Does the Russian population want this .... definitely not .... and the Kremlin knows this. These Russian exercises are (IMHO) being used to put political pressure on the EU to force Ukraine to implement the Minsk 2 agreements .... unfortunately .... Ukraine itself is deeply divided, and there is no political will to resolve the conflict in the east. Hence expect more exercises and articles like this one in the future.