The Hill: Pollsters suffer huge embarrassment
Pollsters and election modelers suffered an industry-shattering embarrassment at the hands of Donald Trump on Tuesday night.
Trump had long said the polls were biased against him. His claims – dismissed and mocked by the experts – turned out to be true.
“It’s going to put the polling industry out of business,” said CNN anchor Jake Tapper. “It’s going to put the voter projection industry out of business.”
Read more ....
WNU Editor: As I had stated in a post a few days ago ..... Are The U.S. Presidential Polls Right? (November 5, 2016) .... the polls were not making sense. But the two tracking polls that I always follow .... and were in complete disagreement with the main stream polls .... picked up on what was happening .... L.A. Times/USC Tracking Poll and IBD/TIPP Presidential Election Tracking Poll.
I expect a lot commentary and analysis in the coming weeks on why did these polls not picked up what I and a few others obviously saw was the case. Bottom line .... the pollsters have taken a major hit, and in the next election cycle they have not only lost a lot of their credibility, but it is going to take a while for them to get it back.
2 comments:
All those other polls either had completely wrong underlying assumptions about the electorate or were outright marketing efforts to make DJT followers feel insecure about their support. I saw several examples of the pollsters skewing projections because of their hate for Trump. Or as Megyn Kelly said, we don't follow the polls (mentioned here) which show Trump winning. For them, that was their version of biased polls because it was so unimaginable for them personally. That's the problem of believing a sample in which "n" equals one, especially yourself. Plus, you can't ignore 94 million underemployed Americans looking for a new direction.
It was obvious to me that the models did not bother to factor in rural and small town America where I travel a lot and saw that her arrogance, condescending attitude and lying were nearly universally despised, college educated or not. She is the antithesis of rural and small town values, and she woke a sleeping giant.
.
Post a Comment