The People's Republic of China flag and the U.S. Stars and Stripes fly along Pennsylvania Avenue near the U.S. Capitol in Washington during Chinese President Hu Jintao's state visit, January 18, 2011. Credit: Reuters/Hyungwon Kang
James Palmer, Foreign Policy: China Really Isn’t Joking About Taiwan
Beneath Beijing’s seemingly mild criticism of Trump’s phone call are currents of raw, public nationalism the government can’t control.
Tere’s a reason Donald Trump’s impetuous conversation with Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen has left foreign-policy experts tearing their hair out by the roots. The fussy diplomatic protocols Trump flouted, in this case, are not a mere formality. They are a finely honed coping strategy for Chinese emotions that are very raw and potentially explosive. Although the Chinese reaction has been surprisingly — perhaps hopefully — muted, there is no more sincerely sensitive issue in China, among politicians and the public, than Taiwan.
Taiwan, or the Republic of China, was founded by the fleeing Kuomintang (KMT or “Nationalist Party”), the modernizing but corrupt, authoritarian, and incompetent rulers of China in the 1930s, after they lost the mainland to the Communist Party, the modernizing but corrupt, authoritarian, and incompetent rulers of China from 1949 to the present. They fled to the conveniently defensible island on China’s southern margins, once famous as a haven for pirates and later a Japanese colony.
Read more ....
Update: Beijing grits teeth in face of Trump's tweets (The Guardian)
WNU Editor: The Chinese have always been nationalistic .... but what I have seen in just the past few years is unprecedented .... and in many ways it has been nurtured by the central government to divert people's attention away from the country's economic problems and the imbalance between those who are doing well .... and those who are not. In regards to Taiwan ..... many Chinese regard Taiwan as part of China .... as well as much of the South China Sea an the East China Sea. And in regards to what the people in Taiwan may feel .... or what do the countries that border the South China Sea and the East China Sea may claim .... China's reaction has always been the same .... derision, threats, and simply using their military to enforce their claims. In regards to the U.S. .... their behaviour has always been predictable. They always pull something off in the first six months after a new U.S. President has been sworn in .... to gauge how he reacts, and to what limits can China push him on issues that are central to China. But the Achilles Heel of China has always been its economy, and the expectations of its population that they will benefit from continued Chinese economic expansion. This is the social contract that the Central Communist party in Beijing has with its people .... and as long as the economy continues to grow .... much of the population will be content with this arrangement. But the problem is that much of this growth has been fuelled by the export of Chinese goods around the world with a devalued currency, while restricting imports via through tariffs and other ridiculous bureaucratic measures. President-elect Trump has made it very clear to the Chinese that "business as usual" is not going to be his policy .... and this in turn has put China in a bind. The Chinese Central government is dependent on running huge trade deficits with the U.S. to fuel its growth .... and no one else can even come close to replacing the U.S. should the China choose to diversify their export markets. And that is the "rub" of it all. Upset the White House .... then expect tariffs and other trade restrictions from the U.S. .... and while it may hurt certain businesses and make the cost of Chinese products more expensive for Americans .... people will adjust their spending habits and other countries and companies will step in. But for the Chinese .... they would have lost their number one export market .... and for an economy that is already experiencing severe debt and financial mismanagement problems .... this will hurt them hard. My prediction still holds .... they will bite their tongue and take it .... and they are not going to test President-elect Trump when he is in the White House .... they now have a very good idea on who and what he is.
12 comments:
I disagree, Chinese leadership must make a counter move/escalate in the face of national humiliation, at home and abroad. If military moves are necessary, a shock strike on Taiwan including ADZ's in SCS and ECS, freezing gains in place can be predicted.
In that part of the world they have the advantage prior to a suggested 350 ship US navy, and China has the continued advantage of a mature industrial base. Able to ramp quickly. We are in uncharted territory the next 1-1/2 months. Buckle up! A wild card may be Russias interest in the goings on.
WNU,
You're right. The US and China are locked in a very tight embrace dancing a strange dance. Though both want to lead, neither is sure if they should lead or follow. Trump now states, "I will lead", the onlookers hold their breath and it's China who must react not the US.
Anon,
Well we posted same time. Obviously we disagree on short term, but I agree "buckle up". I think the ones to watch will be the Philippines and Japan.
It's about time the US steps up, this openly displays the obama admins terrible policy of suckling to all of its enemies....
Generally, I agree with Anon. A big concern of mine is that Trump may be laying the groundwork to use Taiwan as a bargaining chip to get Chinese concessions elsewhere. (IE: we back away from Taiwan, you revalue your currency. etc.) - not an unheard of tactic in business. That would be an obvious signal that U.S. loyalty is for sale.
LETTER FROM TAIWAN
Why China’s Not Afraid of Donald J. Trump
Matt, I'm thinking along the lines of you here. I see this as Trump ramping up support of Taiwan now, in an effort to get a better deal with China on trade later. I don't think he'd completely abandon Taiwan, but rather 'back down' to the status quo once he get's what he wants from China.
But...you could be right...maybe US loyalty will be for sale. Time will tell
Should China choose to invade Taiwan there is nothing the US can do. China is militarily more powerful than the US. Whether or not Taiwan is an independent nation or a Chinese province is an issue for China and Taiwan to decide. This is a power struggle between peoples on the other side of the world and is not something we need to be inserting ourselves into or ever should have inserted ourselves into.
If the plan is to back away from Taiwan, then it would have made more sense to do so from the start. By taking a phone call from the Taiwanese leader the Chinese are now angered. When they are angry, they are going to be less likely to negotiate with us for a change in trade agreements or currency valuation.
We need an agreement here. In order to achieve this, changes in policies on Taiwan and recognizing China's position on the South China Sea are probably going to be needed to achieve this.
I don't think this a question of loyalty to Taiwan. Loyalty works both ways. Thus far the relationship with Taiwan has been one of use and abuse whereby Taiwan uses and abuses the United States in the same manner the majority of US "allies" do.
If Mr. Trump is playing some sort of game, he may not understand when he negotiates with China he is negotiating under a position of weakness. I'm not so sure the "dealmaker" has had to do this in a very long time, if ever. Essentially we need "made in China" more than China needs "sold to USA" and we need China to revalue their currency more than they need to do it for us. As such, the wisdom of Mr. Trump's policy seens questionable here.
"Essentially we need "made in China" more than China needs "sold to USA""
Disagree. What the US gets from China can easily be replaced through other countries. It may take a few years to set up the infrastructure, but China could easily be replaced. The US could do great harm to China by moving a small fraction of this trade to other countries.
The US buys cellphones, laptops, cheap electronics, clothes, tooling, machinery and runs a $366 billion dollar trade deficit.
China buys aircraft , scrap metal, electronic components and food from the US, and runs a $254 billion trade surplus.
China is the US's #1 trading partner.
China's largest trading partner is the EU.
No trade with China = No Walmart/Best Buy/Dollar stores.
As Walmart/Best Buy/Dollar Stores killed and replaced Main Street and are the major source of all job growth since 2008, (McJobs, but still jobs),
That just leaves Wall Street.
Anon 2,
It'd be ugly for both countries. Uglier for the US though. I think we can agree it could be done as far as setting the infrastructure to replace "made in China." It would take a few years. It would take China some time as well to replace "sold to USA" but ljkely much less time. Essentually such a situation will harm America more than it does China. Also, China would recover in a few years. Tbe US would lkkely not recover for a generation or longer if ever.
Clearly the trade agreements need to be renegotiated. It would be EXTREMELY helpful for the parties to do this in a civil and respectful manner.
"The deal maker" may not be used to making deals with parties who are in a stronger position than he is. China's position seems stronger than the American one. Hopefully US leaders can adjust to reality and act accordingly
there are plenty of other sources of cheap labor besides china
Post a Comment