Martin Chulov, The Guardian: Russia’s influence has risen but Iran is the real winner in Aleppo
Tehran’s help in securing Syria’s second city is much less to do with re-establishing state sovereignty than about asserting its own agenda
As the green surrender buses trickled out of Aleppo last Wednesday, Bashar al-Assad’s two biggest backers reacted very differently.
Russia, which had brokered the deal with Turkey to allow the refugees to leave, was urging the convoy on towards the countryside, where the first of the city’s final refugees were to be disgorged. Iran, on the other hand, was looking for ways to stop it.
To Moscow, the ceasefire was the pinnacle of Russia’s intervention in Aleppo, a moment when it could mount a new case as a peacemaker, after bombing opposition groups to capitulation for 15 months. To Tehran, allowing remaining civilians and rebel fighters to leave was a potential loss of leverage – at precisely the time that Iranian influence on the battlefield had started to eclipse that of Russia’s.
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WNU Editor: With Shia dominated governments in Syria and Iraq .... and coupled with recent military victories .... the perception is that Iran has won and that with time this region will be pacified and dominated by Iranian allies and interests. My take is different .... as Iran asserts its position in regions that have been historically Sunni, they will quickly find themselves facing (if not already) an array of countries who have a different point of view and who will not react kindly to this Iranian presence. Turkey, Saudi Arabia, the Gulf States .... they are going to respond even more so than what they are doing now, and they have the monies, weapons, and willing volunteers to create a hell against Iran and their Shiite allies in this part of the Middle East. The fall of rebel held Aleppo can be seen by many as nearing the end of the conflict .... coupled with the eventual fall of ISIS controlled Mosul .... but I can argue that what we are actually seeing is the beginning of a new insurgency and war .... and one that will eventually lead to a direct clash between Iran and the Sunni government states. As for what Russia will do .... they will want no part of this war .... and with the fall of Aleppo I know that they are now re-evaluating their military goals and objectives in Syria. As for the incoming Trump administration .... many in his cabinet view Iran as a threat .... and unlike President Obama who always went out of his way to accommodate Iran, my money is that the new administration will be doing the opposite.
6 comments:
WNU,
As you know for years I've been arguing that the establishment of a land corridor to the Med (along the line of the above map) is what Iran has been wanting to do. You're essentially arguing that they may do that, but it can't be sustained, I agree with that, but I still think they'll still try for it. It's a case of the difference of what you want and what you get.
I also agree with your view that Russia is reevaluating their presence. I think they'll keep their naval rights at Tartus and influence in Assad's government and be happy with that. Iran no more wants a long term Russian presence than they did a US presence. The fall of Aleppo has given them a lot of confidence (I believe misplaced) in going for regional hegemony or more. I don't think they can do it. Already their local Kurdish population has restarted armed resistance in Iran (quiet wince the late 90's), the multitude of Sunni governments against them, and a dramatic change in US administrations. And over all of this is as I have said many time the wild card of Israel.
No doubt, they will jump headlong into this disaster, fueled by hubris and Jihadist zeal.
I forgot about Israel. But yes .... Israel can be a real shit-disturber if they want to be .... and they will be more than motivated to give grief to the mullahs in Tehran.
Caecus,
Without a doubt. In their mind they've got the green (always important to Shias) to go.
Iran is trying to get all the advantages and positions before the great part of Russia forces leave and Trump administration start a new course toward them. Even if the clash among the area powers restart, I think Putin is capable to avoid major conflict between Turkey and Iran.
Also, the operations of Shiite factions outside Iran are mainly lead by general Kassem Suleimani, not a fool, but a smart commander.
Israel can make a move against Shiite interests in the region, but with more difficulties, because now they are in the losers side of the Syria war. In good company with NATO, Saudis and Qatar.
YC,
I don't know. Israel has by and large held itself pretty aloof from the conflict, with the exception of some localized cross border operations.
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