Uri Friedman, The Atlantic: Global Conflicts to Watch in 2017
The greatest unknown for U.S. interests in the world might be the United States itself.
Over the last several years, concern about a particular threat to the United States has been steadily rising in a survey of American foreign-policy experts and government officials by the Council on Foreign Relations. On an annual basis, hundreds of respondents estimate the likelihood and impact on U.S. interests of 30 possible conflicts in the coming year. These conflicts are then divided into three tiers of risk to the United States or its closest allies. The poll is an attempt to help U.S. policymakers prioritize dangers in a dangerous world.
In the 2013 and 2014 surveys, respondents wrote in the potential for Russia to interfere in former Soviet states including the Baltic countries, which, like the United States, are members of NATO. In 2015, the scenario appeared for the first time among the survey’s 30 “contingencies,” with an “unintentional or deliberate military confrontation” between Russia and NATO member states regarded as a second-tier risk. This year it was considered a first-tier risk, according to the latest survey, released Monday. A conflict in 2017 between one of the world’s most powerful militaries and the world’s most powerful military alliance was judged moderately likely and high-impact.
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WNU Editor: I predicted no major Russia - West military engagement last year .... and I certainly do not see it happening in 2017. The region that I am most worried about is the Middle East and ion what is happening in Afghanistan.
3 comments:
Well, there is nothing new with middle east, they are all at war since Mohamed, but there is less impact since we have shale-oil. My most worry is Asia, and it could be quicker than we can think.
Jac,
"Shale oil", you are correct. There was a time when they pretty much had us "over a barrel." To a large extent, we had to do whatever they wanted and hope they were please or at least not displeased, now not nearly as much.
We've made significant strides in gaining more leverage against these people with shale oil and all of this is with leadership who has not fully utilized this blessing and have generally tried to undermine it. If we ever get leaders who will fully utilize this, we may not only become energy independent but it is conceivable that the United States could become the go to country in the world for oil.
In the immediate aftermath of 9/11, I had written that developing all of our own oil and gas reserves including the refining capacity necessary to process it and that doing this would do more for our national security than anything we are currently doing. Essentially this would have given us leverage we did not have previously. At the time, I only dared think about in terms of "leverage" in negotiations. Actually achieving energy independence was literally a "pipe dream"/fantasy.
Now this is achievable thanks to fracking. IF ONY we can get leaders who will think strategically enough to utilize this gift. If done, America could become the most powerful country in the world. That would be very exciting.
I'm not so worried about Asia. Our only concern there is ensuring that "made in China" can still get to the US. Clearly the trade agreements need to be renegotiated and clearly our manufacturing base needs to be built. It is going to take some time to get this done. In the meantime, we are going to need "made in China."
If a clear signal is sent to countries like Japan, "Taiwan", South Korea, Vietnam, and others that they are NOT to do ANYTHING that will mess up the trade route between the US and China tensions will probably lessen. In the meantime, the Trump Administration needs to be ready to "hit the ground" running on getting US manufacturing infrastructure built and getting the trade agreements changed.
B.Poster,
I hope you are right.
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