In the complex world of international diplomacy every issue is indirectly linked, obscuring the ability to determine when actions by certain countries are specific responses to the movements of others. So when Donald Trump casually smashes four decades of diplomatic norms in less than 140 characters, it only further murks the stew.
Many assume China’s response to Trump’s unprecedented communication with Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen and his questioning of the “One China” policy, the bedrock that underpins US-China relations, will be confined only to the Asia Pacific region, where the issue is familiar. This may also be the case, however, given the unprecedented nature of the diplomatic regression, it would behoove the incoming administration to consider the more indirect ways China can thumb its nose at the President-elect.
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WNU Editor: If the Chinese want serious blow-back from the Americans .... arming the Afghan Taliban will certainly guarantee it. That is why I doubt that the Chinese will do it .... the repercussions (especially on trade policies) .... will significantly hurt China .... and at a time when its economy is slowing down.
4 comments:
WNU, what do you think would be Russia's reaction to China arming the Taliban?
There are already Taliban inspired insurgencies in some of the central Asian republics of the former Soviet Union. Any Taliban success in Afghanistan would only fuel those conflicts .... hence the reason why Russia would frown on any support of the Taliban. China also has an Islamic insurgency in Xinjiang province. Any Taliban success may help to fuel Islamic aspirations there.
Upon seeing this my first thought was such a move on behalf China would be extremely reckless. While it is debatable as to who the most powerful countries are and who would actually win a war between various nations or any form of conflict for that matter and we cannot "know" the outcome of any conflict before it is fought, the Chinese and the Russians for that matter, flawed as they are, do not typically seem prone to making reckless and stupid moves. Anon and WNU, thanks for the replies here. The nature of your replies has pretty much served as confirmation of my original thoughts.
Not being Russian or knowing anyone in Russia, I have no indirect knowledge of the situation in the former Soviet Republics but do recall reading about these Taliban inspired insurgencies as well as China's own Islamic Insurgency. As such, to support the Taliban would be an extremely reckless maneuver.
Thanks for the response WNU.
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