Russian President Vladimir Putin speaks at a December 23 press conference. Credit: Kremlin.ru
Alexander J. Motyl, Atlantic Council: Is Russia Planning a Major Land War against Ukraine?
Recent evidence suggest that Russia may be planning a major land war against Ukraine. While Russian President Vladimir Putin talks peace, several leading Russian analysts have explicitly endorsed the “Syrian variant” with respect to Ukraine.
Are they speaking for themselves or are they acting on behalf of the regime, sending out trial balloons in order to test the popular, and overseas, response to the possibility of an all-out war? In democracies, private analysts generally speak for themselves. In authoritarian, totalitarian, and fascist regimes, highly placed analysts often speak on behalf of the leader—though unofficially, thereby providing him with plausible deniability.
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WNU Editor: Among the fringe in Russia there is an appetite to escalate and expand the war in Ukraine .... but it is the fringe .... and much of it is just talk and/or to get publicity. But in the event that the fringe do become the voice in the Kremlin and a major land invasion of Ukraine does take place .... it will not only be a messy war, but it will be the aftermath where the real mess is going occur. If you break it .... you own it .... and fortunately in today's Russia .... no wants that burden. The sad reality is that today's Ukraine needs tens of billions in dollars to fix its infrastructure, to mothball its nuclear industry (relying on old nuclear reactors is not a policy that can sustain itself), and to repair the damage caused by the war .... Russia is not in a position to spend that type of money .... and quite frankly .... neither is the West. The Ukrainians will have to sort this out themselves .... and I can only hope that it will be sooner rather than later.
3 comments:
I think Moscow has achieved its goals in Ukraine - they have secured the naval and air facilities in Crimea, destabilized the government in Kiev without sending it into complete chaos, eliminated the possibility (near-term anyway) of Ukraine joining NATO or the EU, and established "friendly" provinces like in South Osetia, Abkazia, Transnistria from which to influence the host state without the immediate need for large numbers of overt Russian troops. An all-out invasion of Ukraine would have no practical benefit unless those original gains are threatened - something only Kiev or the West could do. Putin is a lot of things, but irrational is not one of them.
It's time to finish Crimea problem with a sale of this pro Russia territory to Russia. Our new president gets this kind of deal.
It's time to finish Crimea problem with a sale of this pro Russia territory to Russia. Our new president gets this kind of deal.
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