U.S. President Donald Trump (L) and Russian President Vladimir Putin © Reuters / Sputnik
Nikolas K. Gvosdev, National Interest: How Do America and Russia Avoid a War over Syria?
The United States needs to think soberly about its next steps—and not stumble into a clash with Russia that it neither foresees nor desires.
That it has taken so long since the Russian intervention in Syria began in earnest, a year and a half ago, for an incident to occur that might directly pit Russian and American forces against each other has been nothing short of miraculous. That luck ran out this week, with the downing of a Syrian government warplane accused of carrying out air strikes against the U.S.-backed opposition Syrian Democratic Forces—the first time since the 1999 Kosovo campaign that an American fighter has shot down a plane in air-to-air combat.
The Kremlin’s carefully crafted angry response warned that, from this time forward, Moscow will consider as hostile any aircraft overflying Syrian territory without the express permission of the Bashar al-Assad regime, but, crucially, it did not commit the Russian contingent in Syria to take action. Moscow appears to be carefully parsing its words to avoid drawing a red line it may not wish to enforce, or, as my colleague Michael Kofman has aptly pointed out, may not have the technical abilities in place to actually back up.
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WNU Editor: In the past when such conflicts arose .... the back-channels would be burning red-hot right now and the outlines of a deal and/or a lessening of tensions would then be leaked/hinted to the press and widely reported. I do not see that happening at all right now. What I am seeing and hearing right now is an incredibly hostile Russian press .... a hostility that is at a level that I have not heard in a very long time. In the U.S. .... some in the press are worried that President Trump will plunge us into World War IIII .... but the focus is on Russia-gate and the Mueller investigation. In the Middle East .... the impression that I am having is that Iran and their allies are "gun-whole" on doing on what is necessary to drive the U.S. forces out of Syria .... and they are not looking for a deal .... what they are looking for is a fight. To avoid war in the Middle East .... what we need is a deal. But a deal is not what a lot of people want right now. My prediction .... as the Islamic State continues to collapse ... Syrian and Iranian backed forces will be pushing to fill the void .... and they are going to be testing the U.S. and Kurdish/Syrian rebel forces that are there. Expect more deadly confrontations in the coming weeks .... and as for Russia .... I do hope that they stick to their position that the will remain to the West of the Euphrates .... but everything is fluid right now, and anything is possible.
7 comments:
WNU,
Gung Ho. Yes anything is possible right now. If you think about it Iranian forces are fairly committed and exposed right now.
Yes. They are exposed right now. No more in the shadows.
Russia's position in this matter is not completely clear. On the one hand, both the Assad regime and Russian sources are reporting that Russia is participating in the move by the Assad regime and Hizbullah in eastern Syria against the American plan. Thus, on May 8, 2017, the Syrian daily Al-Watan, which is close to the regime, reported: "Huge reinforcements of Syrian and Russian military troops have arrived in the Syrian desert region, in addition to [other] friendly forces" in advance of the operation to take over Deir Al-Zor and the Iraqi border.[31] Proof of Russian involvement was found in a post on the Facebook page of the unofficial media channel of the Russian air force base at Hmeimim, where it was reported on May 17 that soon "cooperation and military coordination on the senior level" would begin "between Syrian government forces, Iraqi government forces, and the units aiding them, in order to act against ISIS in the area of the border between the two countries. The military coordination will be done by means of Iranian military experts and in coordination with the Russian air force, in order to help the Syrian ground forces... This is a race against the armed opposition, which seeks to establish a buffer zone in front of the Golan Heights and the border with Iraq and Jordan, with direct American support."[32]
On the other hand, it was reported that Russia was working to prevent friction between the forces of the Assad regime and its allies and the U.S. forces, and was striving to arrive at understandings with the U.S. and with Jordan with regard to the deconfliction zones in southern Syria and primarily in the Al-Tanf region, where U.S. forces and opposition forces that they support are concentrated.[33]
WNU,
"They are exposed right now. No more in the shadows." I meant in a military sense, but I agree with you also. I should have been clearer.
What can be done?
Have the libtards call off their circus, so we can focus on the matter at hand?
Find a very laege piece of common ground. It s there. Putin can be the hero of Syria.
JB
" It s there. Putin can be the hero of Syria." With ease, but what or I should say how is he looking at all of this. It must be said his interests don't align with ours or maybe they do, no one knows, but .........him.
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