Wall Street Journal: U.S., Russia Spar Over Approach to North Korea Threat
Pentagon notes advances by Pyongyang as U.S. warns regime of further isolation, military option
The U.S. and Russia clashed at the United Nations Security Council over how to respond to North Korea’s nuclear-weapons program, a confrontation throwing into doubt U.S. hopes for an international diplomatic solution to the burgeoning crisis.
The standoff between diplomats on Wednesday came just two days before President Donald Trump and Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin plan to hold their first meeting during the summit of the Group of 20 leading nations in Germany, raising the stakes for both leaders as well as China, which will attend the international gathering.
Following North Korea’s July 4 launch of its first intercontinental ballistic missile, deemed by U.S. officials to be capable of reaching Alaska, U.S. officials invoked direct threats of military action as they tried to marshal coordinated international action.
Read more ....
WNU Editor: Both Russia and China are making the assumption that the U.S. will not launch a military strike on North Korea .... and they are right. But the problem with this thinking is that their focus is on the wrong party .... their focus should be on what is North Korea doing .... not the U.S. or South Korea. Another problem that I am seeing is that in both Beijing and in Moscow there is now a belief that they can use North Korea as a lever to limit South Korean - U.S. military cooperation .... specifically on military exercises and missile defence .... China, Russia say U.S., South Korea should refrain from military drills (Japan Times/AP). Again ... this is a mistake. The carrot that China and Russia are offering is that they are saying that they can limit North Korea's nuclear and military programs .... but the problem is that North Korea under Kim Jong-Un has shown a tendency to follow a very independent path. In this context .... and with constant threats of war from Pyongyang .... the idea that the U.S. - South Korea - Japan alliance would scale back their defense posture on a promise from Russia and China that they can do something about North Korea .... is a leap of faith that no one in his or her right mind in Seoul-Washington-Japan will take. But the fact that both Moscow and Beijing believe that this is actually a viable and reasonable proposal .... makes me wonder if they are really aware on how much the dynamics have changed in the Far East, or are they working on the assumption that the U.S. will fold, and both South Korea and the U.S. will become "poodles" for what Beijing and Moscow will tell them to do. My prediction ... on the geopolitical level this Chinese-Russian approach is going to cause blow-back that will harm both countries. Russia needs to work and cooperate with the U.S. to address a number of issues that are putting pressure on Moscow right now. The collapse of Russian-sponsored Syrian peace talks. The impact of sanctions on the Russian economy. The continuing Ukraine war and the slow drift to another Cold War .... all of these issues need to be addressed, but they will be ignored by the White House if Russia continues with their current policies and approach towards the U.S. on North Korea. As for China .... they are optimistic that the U.S. will not alter the trade balance/current trade policies between the two countries ... hence they will downplay the North Korean crisis .... and they (with Russia) will veto any new sanctions. My prediction .... if this continues the Chinese and Russians are going to be in for a big surprise .... favouring North Korea and its deranged leader over the U.S. may make sense for the policy makers in Beijing and Moscow .... but from where I am standing .... this is lunacy.
More News On Russia And China Preparing To Block U.S. Calls For More Sanctions On North Korea
North Korean missile launch pits China and Russia against the US -- ABC News Online
How Russia and China are bonding against the US -- Matthew Chance, CNN
Russia Opposes U.S. Call For New Sanctions Against North Korea -- RFE
Russia and China Have a Common Line on Resolving the North Korean Problem -- The Diplomat
5 comments:
If they cut off the sanctions options there WILL be a military response , you will soon see assets moved to guam and SK along with 3 aircraft carrier battle groups, give it 90 days max if diplomacy stalls.
WNU,
" Both Russia and China are making the assumption that the U.S. will not launch a military strike on North Korea .... and they are right."
I'm not so sure that assumption is correct. I also think Putin is quite aware of the problem he has. I said a long time ago that Iran does not want anyone from the West interfering with their drive to the west and the Med. They (Solemeini) must be calculating that his plans have advanced far enough he really doesn't need the Russians anymore. I think Putin now realizes that and is trying to get out using the Korean situation.
In essence I think the tables have been turned on the Russians and the Chinese, it's up to them to deliver now and both have wild card clients Russia/Iran and China/North Korea that are unknowns.
What's disturbing is that ALL players have immense interests now involved with almost no diplomatic wriggle room.
For Putin the question for him is "was the limited goals of his original Syrian involvement" worth it? The only person he can really make a deal with is Khamenei, that is a deal that doesn't look like Iran is betrayed. Erdogan will do as he is told, he is too isolated by his own actions. There is more but I'm tired.
" Both Russia and China are making the assumption that the U.S. will not launch a military strike on North Korea .... and they are right."
While I believe a US strike on North Korea remains unlikely, I would not rule it out. With current tensions escalating and not slowing down, the likelihood of a US strike increases.
The US is not downplaying the threat of North Korea. There is a very different attitude towards N.Korea compared to the stance that the Obama administration took. When you take that into account along with the current sitting president; a military strike is still very much on the cards, and if the US is backed into a corner (with the current administration) then a military strike is likely.
No one ever thought Trump would launch cruise missiles at a Syrian airbase. But he did.
He continues to be full of surprises.
Kim knows he loses a full scale war. While he might fantasize eventually holding the US at grave risk with nuclear weapons, he is not at that point yet and I have to think he knows it. Would he go all in if he is merely hurt?
I also would not rule out a US strike. That might be against his enrichment halls and nuclear test sites.
Trump is hard to predict. He has sober advisors in Mattis and Tillerson. But Trump has limited patience, ironically, for negotiations--- that appear to have no end game. He will act.
Obviously you guys have more insight in the complication of this thing , for more than me
But here is my take on this :
Obviously china and russia made a pact to push the US of the worldthrone
Strategy for that is overwelm the US with problems , succesfull espionage in big numbers , ukraine , election , south china sea and north korea
What boggles my mind is that china and russia will endanger the world when it favours them
We either all stop north korea together or things will fail
What is the endgame here
Do china and russia think they can control kim jong un ?
Do they have a combined military option on the table to destroy north korea if the US has suffered enough damage to push them off the throne?
What kim has showed me is that he will pursue his objectives no matter what , with or without help from anyone else.
Whether the world agrees or not
What makes china and russia think they dont have a nuke coming their way unless they respect the fact that kim is starving his own people
On a sidenote , pure sanctions on top of sanctions is no definite solution
It will mean more innocent people will suffer more than they already do cus kim will keep pursueing his objectives no matter what
How do china and russia dont see that ww3 is inevitable , its just waiting if NK strikes first or the US strikes first .
Or do they have plans to profit from either situation ?
As d. Plowman pointed out , i wouldnt be so sure that the US doesnt strike first if they are pressured to do so ,
But yea once again isnt that the whole plan?
It makes me question what has to become of the world if china or russia do get ahead of the US .
I do know strategy , and strategy wise there is some seriously sketchy stuff going on here
What im hoping for is more information that give us more insight in end game possibilities
I hope i made some sense here
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