An ISIS militant carrying the regime's flag in a propaganda video. Twitter
Reuters: 'We have tougher days coming': ISIS is reinventing itself for guerrilla warfare
MOSUL (Reuters) - Islamic State militants began reinventing themselves months before U.S.-backed Iraqi forces ended their three-year reign of terror in Mosul, putting aside the dream of a modern-day caliphate and preparing the ground for a different fight.
Intelligence and local officials said that, a few months ago, they noticed a growing stream of commanders and fighters flowing out of the city to the Hamrin mountains in northeast Iraq which offer hideouts and access to four Iraqi provinces.
Some were intercepted but many evaded security forces and began setting up bases for their new operations.
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WNU Editor: We are going to find out in the coming months/years if the Iraqi security forces are capable of taking on an insurgency with sleeper cells and small units of militants who pop out of deserts and mountains, carry out attacks and melt away. My money is on them being able to do so .... and the reason why is that their rules of engagement .... while brutal from our perspective .... will work to pacify populations who have no interest to repeat this cycle of violence again. After decades of war and conflict .... much of the Sunni population in Iraq is going to accept this new reality (albeit reluctantly) .... and this is how insurgencies end .... when a war-weary population has to make that choice of continuous warfare and chaos, or accepting a form of peace and stability. In the end .... peace and stability is always preferable.
2 comments:
WNU,
You're right on this especially the population psychology and different ROE. I'll add, whoever and how many are on the take in the Iraqi government (military civilian) will have a short and long term effect. If the Baghdad government continues to purge or seem to purge the Sunni political existence in Iraq they will give ISIS an undeserved legitimacy. As the Baghdad government has Iranian sympathy and policy we may now see the conflict (barring outside interference) settle down the demographic Sunni/Shia line that is northeast of Baghdad.
As always ring that tired old bell, watch Solemeini.
ISIS will focus on festering sectarian violence, and, while continuing its lone wolf program and Philippines'style endeavours, will double its efforts to land a big hit to sustain the belief of its legitimacy.. think massive civilian death tolls.. and of course, the classics like truck driving over pedestrians etc will stay with us
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