Shazand nuclear power plant in Markazi province, Iran. Photo credit: Mohsan Dabiri-e Vaziri
Washington Post: Trump administration plans to certify Iranian compliance with nuclear agreement
The administration has decided for the second time since January to certify Iranian compliance with the nuclear agreement that President Trump has called a “disastrous” deal, according to U.S. and foreign officials.
The decision followed what several officials characterized as heated internal debate that culminated at a principals committee last week in a clash between a number of White House officials and Secretary of State Rex Tillerson and Defense Secretary Jim Mattis.
Tillerson has statutory responsibility for certifying Iran’s compliance to Congress every 90 days, a deadline that falls next Monday. Some White House officials and lawmakers argued that Iran has breached the deal in several significant areas. But Tillerson and Mattis noted that international monitors and U.S. allies have assessed the opposite, and said that any sharp change in U.S. posture should await completion of an ongoing administration review of overall policy toward Iran.
Read more ....
WNU Editor: I guess this is not important .... German Intelligence: Iran Is Still Seeking Nuclear Weapons Technology (July 8, 2017).
More News On Reports That The White House Will Be Certifying Iran's Compliance With Its Nuclear Agreement
Trump is 'very likely' to recertify Iranian compliance with Iran nuclear deal: U.S. official -- Reuters
Trump to certify Iran complying with nuclear deal: report -- The Hill
Trump expected to recertify Iran nuclear deal next week: Report -- Washington Examiner
5 comments:
I recall that candidate Trump promised that if elected he would immediately dump the nuke accord Obama and other nations had made.
The German intelligence report is disturbing. It reveals that Iran is still determined to explore options when it comes to nuclear weapons tech. As for agreeing to certify the accord .... I suspect that all the people he trusts .... plus almost every major U.S. ally (with the exception of Israel and Saudi Arabia) warned him that it would be mistake and he decided to capitulate on this one. I hope history proves him right .... but my gut tells me that we may be in for a surprise from Iran a few years from now.
If all you have is Saudi Arabia and Israel to assist you in confronting Iran and failure to certify compliance will inevitably lead to war with Iran and very soon. With only these countries we would be at a decisive disadvantage.
Essentially we are in position to be able to effectively confront Iran militarily if we go to war now as would be the case if the agreement is not certified. Certifying the agreement means we may be going to war in a "few years."
Unfortunately as the unfunded liabilities that the US has comes due and the US dollar's role as world reserve currency is inevitably lost we will be in even worse shape relative to Iran in a few years than we are now and ten years from now we will be in even worse shape ten years from now. Do you fight a war you probably can't win today? Do you wait a few years, ten years, or whatever when you are even less likely to win the war to fight it? Do you certify the agreement now essentially kicking the can down the road in hopes that Iranian behavior can be changed? It appears that POTUS and his team have taken the last option.
In a card game called poker, when a player does not have the cards, he/she "folds." Unfortunately this is no game. America's survival is at stake. If it were a game such as poker, America simply does not have the "hand" to be able to effectively "play."
In January 2008, I patiently explained to friends and family that we did not need to concern ourselves with an Iranian nuke as Israel would eliminate the problem. Israel has been either unwilling or unable to do so. As such, the bottom line is Iran is getting nuclear weapons and there is nothing we can do to stop them. How do we proceed from here? Once one accepts reality as it is, one can then begin to formulate policies that might actually work.
There is another possibility. Russia and probably China do have leverage over Iran, especially Russia. They can influence their behavior in ways we would never be able to. Perhaps a back channel deal was made with the Russians. Perhaps agreed intelligence sharing, assistance with Syria, the administration doing all it can do to get sanctions removed, or something like this. In return, Russia has agreed to assist America in ensuring Iran does not develop nuclear weapons. Oh wait...any working with Russia now is considered off limits by the imbeciles who currently run things in DC.
Ultimately I would like to get moving towards some sort of UN Tribunal to settle all outstanding issues between America and Iran. There are several problems with this, at this time. 1.)To go to trial at this point, will simply be a kangaroo court that will simply side with Iran on any and all things. Essentially America cannot expect to get a fair trial. 2.)Iran is not interested in any kind of settlement. War with America is simply to profitable for them right now and America due in large part to its own stupidity makes a perfect foreign devil for them. With "death to America" as their goal and they currently have the upper hand one typically does not quit the fight in such a situation unless they are given very strong incentives to do so. 3.)Should the tribunal find in some way for America, there is no mechanism in place to ensure Iran abides by the terms of the tribunal. Until these things can be satisfactorily addressed this cannot be achieved and would likely be inadvisable to do so.
While I'm not optimistic, I hope there is a side deal on this with Russia and China. We certify the agreement, offer them some things of value, and in turn they agree to ensure Iran does not get nuclear weapons that would be used against the United States or Israel. This stops the Iranian nuclear program and we get to avoid a war that we probably can't win.
My friends in Israel tell me that Israel is not going to be a first strike nation, but, so they say, Iran knows that Israel has a number of nuke armed subs always on the ready, and this in itself should be sufficient to convince Iran not to launch a nuke. In passing, there are more subs being built in Germany for sale to Israel
Fred,
Thanks for the reply to my post. Perhaps you are right. Perhaps Israeli nuclear armed subs possibly workkng in concert with America's nuclear deterrent will be enough assuming our arsenal works would be enough to deter Iran.
While it would be prudent to evaluate the German report thoroughly and not just take their word for it simply because they said so, I don't believe for a nanosecond that Iran is complying.
Perhaps the Israeli sub deterrent in concert with whatever we can contribute would be sufficient right now. If coupled with a stern warning to Iran in private that we are watching and know exactly what they are doing might just be sufficient.
Also, as I understand it, certication has to happen every 90 days so this can be revisted later. Furthermore failure to "certify" will lead to wzr with Iran straightaway. This is a war we cannot prosecute effectively right now which "Mad Dog" must know and has no doubt advised POTUS accordingly and when combined with how little support we have for confronting Iran what you suggest is about all we have.
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