Bloomberg: There’s One North Korea Taboo China’s Leaders Won’t Talk About
* Military confrontation with U.S. likely if regime collapses
& Nuclear weapons, refugees top list of potential concerns
In discussions between the U.S. and China about reining in North Korea, one topic remains taboo: What would happen if Kim Jong Un’s regime collapses?
For years, China has rebuffed U.S. attempts to raise the topic at so-called Track 2 dialogue sessions between academics in each country’s foreign policy establishment, according to Bonnie Glaser, senior adviser for Asia at the Center for Strategic & International Studies in Washington, who has led the U.S. side in such talks. Attendees included people from Chinese government-affiliated research institutions and military officers, she said.
Read more ....
WNU Editor: I am sure the Chinese have already gamed-out what should be done if the North Korean regime collapses .... they are just not telling anyone. As to when will they start talking .... now that is a good question. My guess is that President Xi's and President Trump's advisers will have discussions on this topic when the leaders meet in November .... discussions totally off the record and in a very informal atmosphere (probably over drinks and supper) .... but when the trip has been completed, there will be a basic and superficial understanding on where both-sides stand. The next move is North Korea's .... and what happens there will dictate how China and the U.S. will respond. But in a worse case scenario .... where a complete collapse of North Korea has occurred and there are South Korean/Chinese/and U.S. forces in the country securing WMDs .... I am confident that there will be an understanding on what needs to be done, that they will cooperate and there will be no conflict.
12 comments:
WNU,
That is not the worst case scenario.
James,
you are right.
China will not give up on north Korea.
They'll ask Kim to keep quiet for a while and he'll comply because it makes sense - once he has enough nuclear weapons and a credible delivery platform - in about 6-12 months - the US can complain all they want. Neither the Chinese nor north Koreans will listen. They barely listen now. And all of APAC is watching. This is the end of the pivot to Asia. The middle east is lost too. Retreat of US everywhere. A small nation threatening nuclear war on the US and aside from sanctions no consequences. This playbook will be copied. The Iranians. Syria. They will all try their own playbooks - not everyone is as lucky like North Korea though - to be helped and backed by the Chinese. But the Russians will be happy to help where it makes sense for them - no matter how many civilians are murdered, right Assad?
Oh and China will do more of the same, of course. With a nuclear Asian ally the power shifts even more so in their favour. In fact, they might want to use north Korea to do some of the dirty work for them - and the spoils will be shared between north Korea and China. Hey, South Korea - think about changing your flag. Hey, Taiwan - you too. Vietnam, better stay away from those oil fields - China threatened you with war before. and finally Japan - payback time. The hatred for Japanese runs deep in China.
It's the frog in the slowly boiled water - he doesn't realise what's happening. But he is being cooked and will be dead in just a few moments.
And for those of you who wonder why both Trump and Kim traded insults - because both know this is happening. Kim knows he is being protected by China. Trump knows he can only win with nukes - but he can't use them because of China. China won't let anything happen to north Korea until they have served their purpose.
That simple. Real politics / Frog boiling 101.
Only surprise will be Trump - is he the frog, or the cook? (Or the guest ordering the frog on the menu) :):)
WNU,
I have this on an extremely good source and it is not good. Kim has started wearing shorts.
James,
The GF just did an excellent put-down on something I did yesterday .... and now .... I am being reminded of my dress code in China.
Sighhh .... can't get ahead. :(
:)
NK is of no real threat to anyone, its nuclear program is defensive in nature and with SK's ability to acquire nuclear arms at a whim i see no reason why they would abandon their program. Kim Il did it and look what good it did, their country suffered from a massive famine as US didn't stick to the deal.
Korea is of massive strategic importance to the US, WW2 saw Japan fall under American rule, but Japan had been at war since 1938 and had large territories deep into China and Korea.
The following Korea war and even vietnam war was the US's attempt to make ground on the largest continent within striking distance of their biggest rival Russia.
Fact is in any war you need to invade to win, something America has no ability to do in the face of a Russian or even a Chinese threat. Despite all the propaganda it is strategic military advisors who are insighting this sabre rattling because we all know if American gets a real foothold in Korea they can threaten literally the whole world.
Those deep Russian nuclear sites need to remain out of striking distance for the stability of our planet.
Anon # 1,
The US will not wait 6 to 12 months to deal with this. Like you I long ago concluded the US cannot win without nukes. As such, nukes will be used and China will be on the receiving end of some of them.
This isn't about preserving American "dominance." This is about safeguarding the lives of 10s of millions of Americams.
The Chinese could still negotiate. 1.) American leaders will not be prosecuted in the new world order for their "crimes." 2.) The US dollar as world reserve currency is over. (This is inevitable anyway and attempts to prevent this are a futile waste of time and resources.) 3.) The Chinese stand ready with low interest loans to help America recover. 4.) Americca recognizes China's position in the South China Sea and doesn't interfere. 5.) The Chinese help us with North Korea. 6.) The Kims may be allowed to live out their lives in prosperity and peace in the tropics somewhere and South Korea may be no more. (It's not like they could realistically expect to win a war against their northern neighbor anyway.)
International diplomacy is TOUGH. I would NOT want to do it. I think China would accept these terms. If not, it's a nuclear fight to the finish. I'm sure Russia would love that. If only Mr. Trump's diplomatic overtures to Russia had been allowed to succeed, we would have a Russian ally now. North Korea, Iran, or pretty much anyone else wouldn't dare attack us or even threaten us!!
"NK is of no real threat to anyone, its nuclear program is defensive in nature "
The U.S. was no threat to North Korea. But due to the constant badgering on the internet and elsewhere it now is. The U.S. did not attack in the 1990s. At that time the Russians were at a nadir, the North Koreans did not have nukes and the U.S. attacked 3 other nations. Of which 2 desperately needed it. If Russia did nothing while the U.S. attacked Iraq and Libya, what made North Korea safe? They did not have the bomb for most of that time. It was not deliverable for all of that time.
"The hatred for Japanese runs deep in China"
Prove it. I have not seen this.
"we all know if American gets a real foothold in Korea they can threaten literally the whole world."
Wow, Mackinder has nothing on you.
"Those deep Russian nuclear sites need to remain out of striking distance for the stability of our planet. "
Those Russian sites are 20 minutes or less form the U.S. The U.S. sites are 20 minutes or less from Russia.
Personally, I do not worry about the Russians so much as the Kazans and Caucasian Muslims will make Russia Muslim.
But if this Anon be a Russian keyboard warrior, then maybe a Muslim take over of Russia would be an improvement.
"The following Korea war and even vietnam war was the US's attempt to make ground on the largest continent within striking distance of their biggest rival Russia. "
Much easier to drive from Germany and now from Poland than twice or three times as far from Korea or Vietnam.
Dude, who wrote your script?
Aizino l agree, apart for the deep hatred if Japan.
That is real, nanking has never been forgotten or forgiven.
B.poster, please South Korea in its own can defeat the North in a conventional war.
If America use nuclear weapons I don't think that China or Russia will take a chance against USA. The fear is not only in our side.
I'm not a warmonger but we have to fix the problem now. The more we wait, the more it would be bloody. Thinking Kim Jong Un is expecting peace with its weapon is exactly the same when we was thinking that Hitler was not building its military "just for being secure".
Aizino there are these days when you write coherently, to the point and make a lot of sense. Today is not one of those days. What a Spagetti mess of blurbs. :)
I answered some Anon point by point.
There assertion was in quotes.
My reply was immediately underneath.
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