KCNA/Reuters
Korea Herald: North Korea nearing final development stage of ICBM: ministry
North Korea is nearing the final stage of developing an intercontinental ballistic missile and is likely to continue test-launches and nuclear experiments to perfect the technology, Seoul’s Defense Ministry said Monday.
In a briefing to a parliamentary defense committee, the ministry also said that the North’s launch Friday of the intermediate-range Hwasong-12 rocket appears to be intended at demonstrating its capability to strike the US territory of Guam. In August, the communist regime had threatened to attack the Pacific island, some 3,400 kilometers from Pyongyang, with four Hwasong-12 missiles.
Read more ....
WNU Editor: More than anyone else the South Koreans are watching everything what goes on in North Korea. This announcement from the South Korean defense ministry does not give a time frame on when will North Korea be able to perfect the technology, but it does give a heads-up that should alarm all of us.
Update: Yup .... Here's why a North Korean 'city-busting' thermonuclear ICBM changes the game (Alex Lockie, Business Insider).
6 comments:
The situation is nearing the point where someone must give in, in reality if not rhetorically.
1. I think North Korea's goal is to be able to strike the United States mainland with nuclear weapons delivered by missiles. I think Fat Boy and his advisors calculate that this ability will undermine, if not end, the USA's alliance with South Korea. The articles attached by WNU Editor make this point explicitly. Such decoupling would enable North Korea to end the Korean War on its terms, a huge victory. North Korea's action is not unlike the Soviet Union's attempt to decouple the USA from Europe by deploying the SS-20.
2. The USA has said repeatedly, under presidents of both parties, that the United States cannot accept North Korea's possession of the capacity outlined in Point 1.
3. Sooner or later, North Korea will have to give up its goal under Point 1, or the USAs will have to give up its goal under Point 2. Note that some former Administration officials are now saying that we can live with North Korea's power to strike the mainland; those officials argue that we will deter North Korea, as we deterred the Soviets, from using their weapons.
4. If both sides stick to their positions in 1 and 2, war is beginning to look inevitable.
5. North Korea has, in my view, overplayed its hand somewhat. Ideally, North Korean policy would drive wedges between the USA, South Korea, and Japan. Instead, Fat Boy's aggressiveness has driven them together. WNU Editor: the Japanese Prime Minister wrote a letter published recently in the New York Times stating that Japan supports the US position that "all options" are on the table. I read that as support for military action. This is significant. If you have not already posted the letter, it is worth posting it.
6. Fat Boy and his advisors calculate that the increasingly dire American warnings are bluffs. He might be right. I am not so sure.
7. The key dynamic might be that (a) the USA is serious about willingness to go to war to prevent North Korea's ability to strike American cities with nuclear weapons, and (b) Fat Boy's belief that the USA is bluffing. I am reminded of Imperial Russian Foreign Minister Sazanov's realization in 1914 that (i) the UK would go to war if Germany invaded Belgium, and (ii) Germany's belief that the UK was bluffing. Sazanov tried, and failed, to persuade the Germans that the UK meant it.
8. If China recognizes the dynamic outlined in Point 7, China might bestir itself to intervene with the Fat Boy. On the other hand, China might calculate that the USA will lose whether there is peace or war. Eithwer outcome is in China's interest.
Publius, thank you for your comment.
I did post a link from the Japanese PM in my World News Briefs a while back. But you are correct. It deserves a post by itself, and I will do so later tonight or tomorrow.
Publius,
1) I believe this is a secondary goal on Kim's part.
2) yes
3) yes
4) again yes, to elaborate why would Kim change now, but more of that
in 5.
5) I don't know if Kim cares, but I agree on the result of SK and
Japan especially growing together AND the importance of the
Japanese PM's letter.
6) yes
7) I think the key here is that everyone (US, Chinese, etc) is off on
their analyses of Kim the person.
8)China would be wrong on that decision
I personally think that China is Kim's #1 target in all of this,
with the US and it's allies a close second. He is playing this as a
dead man would, which he is if he ever makes a false step. Few men
have made as many deadly enemies within and without as he has
managed to do.
made as many deadly enemies without and within as he has.
Publius,
Glad to see you.
____________________
Time to pick where you are going to stand politically and physically.
Interesting post Publius, but I think the main goal for Kim is to consolidate is dictatorship, and the ambition to enter North Korea on the club that count: the nuclear club.
Personally I don't think all of this happen without China according, they play two parts in a comedy, as US-NATO made for so long in other parts of the world, when the spotlight is on North Korea, is not on the South China Sea or the OBOR program. They want to play the role of a fundamental peacekeeper now or to be like Russia in Syria in case of war, thinking in both cases to reduce US influence in the area. If is this their plan, China may underestimate the outcomes of a war, but Xi is not stupid, as I think Kim is not so crazy.
North Koreans know that the US and allies may strike with great force, rapidity and precision, but a single attack cannot destroy the capacity of NK Army to respond, with SK and Japan as primary target, and in South Korea many peoples do not want this, considering Koreans one people divided by foreign powers. Even US are not so sure of the outcomes of a war scenario. Trumpusconi is ready to make the move that others POTUS don't make in the past? I doubt.
The comedy still continue until someone make the bad move or the focus is moved on another crisis.
"I think the main goal for Kim is to consolidate is dictatorship"
Let's be honest.
Dictatorship is just another name for communism.
They are synonymous.
A dictatorship is just an oligarchy with a pre-eminent member. Most dictators have a support network of family and allies with their families.
In this blog it was said that North Korea is run by 100 families and China by 900. Certainly Kampuchea was run by a clique.
Cuba is run by an oligarchy.
Face is communism means dictatorship. It is fascism.
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