The Hill: Trump's Iran decision could shake up North Korea stand-off
President Trump’s upcoming decision on whether to toss out the landmark nuclear deal with Iran could have ripple effects half-a-world away.
Experts on both sides of the political spectrum say that whatever happens with Iran will have effects on North Korea and vice versa.
Opponents of the Iranian nuclear deal argue that Iran is watching North Korea’s belligerence to see what they might be able to get away with. Supporters of the deal, meanwhile, say scrapping it would send a signal to Pyongyang that the United States cannot be trusted in any potential future negotiations.
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WNU Editor: Everyone is saying the same thing .... that if the U.S. walks away from the Iranian nuclear deal, it would ruin any chance of bringing North Korea to the table to negotiate on what to do with its nuclear program. Even the Chinese have jumped onto this bandwagon .... China state media: Pulling out of Iran deal would set 'bad precedent' for North Korea (CNBC). But everyone is conveniently ignoring the past. When President Obama completed the Iranian nuclear deal as well as opening diplomatic relations with Cuba ..... he tried to get the North Koreans on board .... Obama Pushes North Korea Nuclear Deal(Roll Call). The North Korean response was very clear .... North Korea Rejects More Talks On The Nuclear Program (October 18, 2015). If the North Koreans said no then .... when the momentum was there for a deal .... why should they change their minds now. The simple answer is that then .... as it is now .... the North Korean leadership's focus is on preserving their regime, and having the means to extract concessions from their neighbors .... not to have talks that would take their cards off the table. To put it bluntly. The idea that after decades of hostilities the North Korea regime is going to change .... and cater to what South Korea/Japan/and the U.S. wants in some settlement on a nuclear weapons program that North Korea sees is vital for its security .... I hate to break the news .... it is not going to happen. The focus on President Trumps decision on Iran (whatever that may be) is a side show .... what everyone should really focus on is putting pressure on North Korea to change policies that they have stuck to for decades. But in the current environment .... I just do not see that happening.
3 comments:
WNU,
I agree with you. Why NoKo will give up so many years and money in its work for trading it with just a paper with a signature! We have to blame ourselves for making this happening. And because that, we have to make what ever it take for fixing our own failure. The price tag will be high but we build it.
Correct,NK has no and never will have a desire for talks that are not in its interests let alienate back from its nukes.
The Jack may be Putin his box but he does need to be put back in and the lid nailed shut.
Gadaffi got rid of his WMD programs and his country started giving western intelligence agencies information about their shared enemies, islamic extremists. He was close friends with Silvio Berlusconi and Tony Blair, and lauded by western leaders. He was murdered for his troubles shortly afterwards, and islamic extremists took over.
Saddam Hussein got rid of his WMDs. Once weapons inspectors had confirmed that he was telling the truth and Iraq was defenceless, it wasn't only a few months before Iraq was invaded, and an islamic extremist insurgency broke out. Saddam Hussein was killed. No WMDs were found in Iraq apart from a minute handful of very old, broken, rusting chemical munitions that were found in a junk yard.
Syria's Bashar Al Assad was a secular London-based eye doctor with a British wife. When his father died, the Syrian elites decided that he, rather than his less moderate siblings, should take over and build bridges with the west. It was a big surprise because nobody expected it, including Assad. He was lauded as a moderate reformer by Washington and London, and he put a halt to Syria's WMD programs and opened Syria up for western businesses. Then western-backed islamic extremists started an insurgency and NATO and Israel started lobbing cruise missiles at him.
Iran agreed to a nuclear deal with the US that was designed to limit its nuclear activities and prevent nuclear weapons development. According to the US monitors and the UN, Iran is complying with the deal. Donald Trump has said he wants to tear up the deal, and walk away.
Can Washington tell us again why Kim Jong Un should take Washington at its word and agree to scrap North Korea's nuclear weapons? North Korea would be insane to trust the US.
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