If North Korea Launches An ICBM, Then…

Earlier North Korea unveiled 'game-changer' ballistic missiles during a display of the country's military might

Joshua Pollack, Defense One: Let’s Walk This Through: If North Korea Launches An ICBM, Then…

It takes a lot of rosy assumptions to get to President Trump’s 97% chance of success.

How good is America’s homeland ballistic-missile defense? If a war broke out tomorrow, could it stop an attack from North Korea?

The short answer, despite many assurances from Defense Department officials, is that no one knows. Ballistic-missile defense, or BMD, is a stunningly ambitious and complex undertaking, unforgiving of the smallest problems. An attacker has many built-in advantages, and it is only because of North Korea’s supposed technological backwardness—a doubtful, increasingly out-of-date notion—that the existing defensive system has enjoyed any credence at all.

Still, North Korea’s force of Hwasong-14 intercontinental ballistic missiles, or ICBMs, is a work in progress. In American terminology, it appears to be at a stage called “initial operational capability”—short of full-scale readiness, but available to some extent on an emergency basis.

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WNU Editor: Many are not optimistic that U.S. missile defense will be able to stop North Korea's missiles from hitting the U.S. mainland .... Deadly Overconfidence: Trump Thinks Missile Defenses Work Against North Korea, and That Should Scare You (Ankit Panda and Vipin Narang, War On The Rocks). More here .... Trump Claims U.S. Missile Defenses Are 97.5 Percent Accurate. That's Not Quite True. (Popular Mechanics).