Saturday, October 7, 2017

Is Russia Trying To Find A Way 'Out' Of Syria?

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Stratfor: Russia Wends Its Way Toward an Exit in Syria

Since it first entered the conflict in 2015, Russia has changed the course of the Syrian civil war. The country managed, along with Iran, to turn the tides of battle back in the Syrian government's favor. And now that it has, it is looking for a way off the battlefield. Moscow doesn't want to be stuck in the Syrian conflict, but neither does it want to lose gains it has made there in solidifying its presence in the country and establishing itself as a critical influence in the region.

To that end, Russia has advocated a divide and conquer strategy with its Iranian and Syrian allies. First, it will draw down the rebellion against the Syrian government by offering the rebels and their backers "de-escalation zones" to freeze key sectors of the battlefield. Once the de-escalation zones have freed up enough manpower, Russia will then go after hard-line extremist groups in the country such as the Islamic State. The strategy has so far enabled Russian and Iranian-backed loyalist forces to switch their focus from fighting rebels in western Syria to claiming as much territory as possible in the eastern part of the country in the Islamic State's wake. But as Moscow is finding out, achieving its goals in Syria will be far more complicated than it anticipated.

Read more ....

WNU Editor: The above article quotes recent Russian polls indicating that support for Russia's involvement in Syria is around 35%. What's my read .... almost everyone I know in Russia is against this involvement, and they want Russian forces out. My prediction .... this war is not going to end anytime soon. And with Shiite militias (in both Syria and Iraq) now being used as the main blunt force against groups like ISIS and Sunni based rebel groups .... this is only going to ferment more violence and conflict in the years to come. A conflict that will only bleed the lives of Russian soldiers, and put financial strains that Moscow is not in a position to sustain over the long term.

1 comment:

RussInSoCal said...

I guess that's the price for, "All roads in ME lead to Moscow".

/welcome to the quagmire, Vladimir!