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Forbes: Why The North Korean Artillery Factor Makes Military Action Extremely Risky [Infographic]
Last month, a poll found that a majority of Americans now support military action against North Korea if diplomatic efforts to resolve the crisis fail. While the United States undoubtedly possesses the military hardware and capabilities to deliver an effective strike on Pyongyang's nuclear facilities, retaliation by the North is highly likely to occur. While this could of course come in the shape of one of the regime's much vaunted intercontinental ballistic missiles armed with a nuclear warhead, observers believe the north's artillery would almost certainly inflict devastating damage against the south, regardless of the missile program.
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Military And Intelligence News Briefs -- October 2, 2017
North Korea calls for end to U.S.-South Korea defense treaty -- UPI
North Korea warns the US over going to war -- News.com.au
Navy Admiral Pledges to Defend Japan, South Korea -- AP
Egypt Reportedly Ordered 30,000 Rockets From North Korea in $23m Deal Foiled by U.S. -- Haaretz
Singapore ‘assures’ Taiwan that military training agreement will stay, Taipei says -- SCMP
Meet the J-20: China Commissions First Non-US Stealth Aircraft (VIDEO) -- Sputnik
Stealth Showdown: America's F-22 Raptor vs China's J-20 (Who Wins?) -- National Interest
Will China and Russia Make U.S. F-22 and F-35 Stealth Fighters Obsolete? -- National Interest
Vast Exercise Demonstrated Russia’s Growing Military Prowess -- NYT
Russia's Three Major Gains Which Completely Changed Military Situation in Syria -- Sputnik
Kyrgyzstan in talks on hosting second Russian military base: PM to agency -- Reuters
Official: Turkish military officer seeks asylum in Cyprus -- FOX News/AP
Ukrainian Army Lost More Shells in Ammo Depot Fire Than in 3 Year Civil War -- Sputnik
The Robots Are Coming! Norway Fears Unmanned Warfare -- Sputnik
Canada Gets Desperate After Trade Dispute Upends Super Hornet Plans -- The Drive
MoD’s £370mn armored cars ‘keep breaking down’: Britain’s top 5 defense kit flops -- RT
US, Philippines Launch New Military Exercise -- The Diplomat
A New Marine Artillery Detachment Is About To Bring The Pain To ISIS -- Task & Purpose/Military.com
US Navy, Marine Corps Unveil New Strategy to Turn Tables on A2/AD -- The Diplomat
Thousands of US Navy officers arrive in Hong Kong for USS Ronald Reagan port of call -- SCMP
US Army Buys Israeli Trophy System So Its Tanks Can Blast Incoming Projectiles -- The Drive
Air Force C-130s Bow Out of International Air Exercise -- DoD Buzz
Recent Carrier Deployment Raises More Questions About Navy’s Rash of Physiological Episodes -- USNI News
Military plane crashes in Tennessee likely killing 2 -- UPI
US Air Force increases pay for pilots as critical shortage continues -- FOX News
Trump Reviews Arms Sales, Hopes To Speed Them -- Breaking Defense
Rumors of Secret Warplanes Preceded Mach 6 SR-72 Spyplane Reveal -- Kyle Mizokami, National Interest
General Tries to Avoid Political Firestorm over Puerto Rico Relief -- Military.com
Navy Will Provide Puerto Rico with Direly Needed Hospital Services in Wake of Hurricane Maria -- USNI News
The military promised to crack down on sexual assault. Have they? -- PBS News Hour
The History of Body Armor, From Medieval Times to Today -- Sam Bocetta, Small Wars Journal
The Need For Missile Defense -- Victor Davis Hanson, Defining Ideas
11 comments:
Easy to "support military action" when you don't live next door.
https://skeptoid.com/blog/2013/03/11/why-north-korea-cant-flatten-seoul/
Fazman,
You keep pointing out that North Korea can't threaten Seoul. I think I can find a number of articles that say they can. In fact, I think we are underestimating North Korea.
Whose right here? The truth is I don't know. I hope you are. At this point, it appears war is unavoidable as North Korea continues backing the United States in a corner and the United States is quickly running out of options. While Chinese help or at least the lack of active hostilities here has frankly been beyond what I would have expected, any help has been to little, to indecisive, and not fast enough.
I shall read the blog post time permitting. It appears to be dated in 2013. I would assume substantial progress on the part of North Korea since then.
It seems reasonable to assume that with massive firepower, including Nukes the US could annihilate North Korea in a matter of days, if not hours. Of course that means that in the process they would be killing a lot of citizens of North Korea many of whom have relatives in South Korea. Sorry for the pun but there could be considerable "fallout" from that victory relative to those deaths.
In addition there can be no thought to under estimating the damage caused by North Korea's nukes if they are launched. That being the case it is possible that in their preparations for their military action they should include the logistics of dealing with perhaps 30,000 US trumps contaminated with radiation in south Korea alone.
Add in the troops stationed in Guam that could seriously exasperate the problem. Are there enough facilities available in the US do deal with that possible issue which of course does not consider the populations of either south Korea and Guam?
They are having problems dealing with hurricane issues right now without adding the troop contamination problem.
I have been both in Seoul and in the DMZ...artillery from further north would devestate Seoul
North Korea poses an existential threat to America that far exceeds the threat to America that Nazi Germany or Imperial Japan ever posed to America. While the threat is greater, it is different. Furthermore America today is a much different country today tgan it was in the mid 1940s. As such, strategies used to defeat North Korea will be different than those used to defeat the adversaries of WW2.
One thing that I predict is the threshold at which America will use nuclear weapons will be much lower than it was during the first Korean War in the early 1950s. During the first Korean War the fight was part of a proxy war against "Communism" and the enemy did not pose an existential threat to America. Today America is in a desperate fight for its survival against implacable enemies on multiple levels. As such, the stakes are much higher meaning nuclear weapons will be turned to much sooner than in the last Korean War.
All of this assumes the nuclear arsenal actually works. Prior to Trump taking office the maintence of the weapons and facilities had been poor. The personnel in charge ofvthem and their leaders were so poorly trained they had to cheat on various tests and morale was poor. Candidate Trump was correct to question whether the arsenal would actually work if needed. He stated recently the first thing he did when coming to office was to upgrade the nuclear arsenal. Even if so I don't see how he could possibly have fixed the problems with it so quickly.
The media didn't raise the proper skepticism of such a claim. Normally the media is skeptical of everything Trump. How was this done so quickly? In the absence of a satisfactory answer to this question, there is no reason to have any confidence that the nuclear weapons themselves themselves or the delivery systems will work if needed or called upon. On the other hand, there are plenty reasons to lack confidence that America's nuclear deterrent will work. To express another way, 99.999999% chance of rain today. 99.999999% chance America's nuclear arsenal won't work. Again, how could DJT have fixed this so quickly?!!? If only there was some reason to be optimistic.
"Massive firepower," once we get past the military porn and perhaps a few special forces that aren't going to last long against a major military power anywayis "paper, there's not much there. The best description of my country the United States and its military is "paper tiger" or "Petomkin Village."
As for South Korea and Guam, while we certainly wish them no har and would like to be friends with them as we wish to be friends with everyone, they have been using us as pawns in their power struggles for decades. Surely a POTUS whose slogan is partly "America first" understands this. As such, it is hard to have much concern for them.
This is a classic case of "blowback" against them. Americans are lectured on this sort of thing daily. South Korea, Guam, and others cannot expect to continue to use Ametica and Americans as pawns and not expect adverse consequences. They aren't so special as to be inmune from such things.
The options for America right now are fight while we still have a chance to win. Best case scenario millions of Americans die on the US mainland die and all US troops stationed in South Korea and Guam die or suffer nuclear contamination but at present we still have a chance to win and preserve our country. If we wait much longer victory will be impossible and our country gets overrun or fully destroyed. Doing nothing, absorbing a crushing blow from North Korea, and hoping we will still be able to respond is NOT an option.
China and Russia could help us with North Korea. How do we obtain such help? Certainly concessions would have to be made. After all these are the most powerful countries on earth. Tnings would be far better if America were allied with the world's strongest countries.
Some might call the necessary concessions "surrender." I would call it acting prudently to safeguard the lives and advance the economic interests of 300+ million Americans. Furthermore if America is going to survive such concessions will need to be made anyway. As such, make them now when something constuctive might be achievable.
No ,they can threaten Seoul but as easily and with the magnitude that is often put forward.
What of the risk to the u.s?, my point is the article is well written and makes sense.
B, have you actually read it?and no in 3 years the northernmost likely has not and cannot change the defecincies to their artillery ,ammunition failure rate, logistical difficulties and poor crews.
The u.s has the right to defense, and hopefully the authors logic rings true( do you really think the citizens of Seoul will just stand there like chicken little starring at the sky hour after hour?
In a conventional confrontation the south with u.s backing has enough to defeat the North, it is the North that is paper not the u.s.
Kim has no intention of using nukes, his bluff has been called and he is running out of options fast.
And a Nork nuke will devastate L.A.
Sea of fire, wipe off the globe, 100,000 civilians killed, according to many studies way to pessimistic.
Many of these authors also questioned the massive casualty predictions of coalition forces in 91.
This will be tragic , but Kim has built up this artillery myth and has exploited it to the max. The problem lies with the South who go about there daily business and refuse to smell the roses and drill and prepare themselves for the storm clouds on the horizon..
https://www.google.com.au/amp/www.popularmechanics.com/military/amp6212/north-korea-and-flattening-seoul/#ampshare=http://www.popularmechanics.com/military/a6212/north-korea-and-flattening-seoul/
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