Switzerland's national flag flies under the logo of Swiss bank UBS in Zurich, Switzerland April 24, 2017. REUTERS/Arnd Wiegmann
Bloomberg: UBS Wealth Stands Pat on 20% Chance of North Korea War
* Kelvin Tay says company is sticking to China, Indonesia bets
* If war does break out, Malaysia stocks may outperform, he says
UBS Group AG’s wealth management unit got its in-house risk analysts to help gauge the threat of war on the Korean peninsula, mapped out the impact on its investments, and then decided to do nothing.
Even as North Korea’s deputy ambassador to the United Nations said a nuclear war “may break out any moment,” the money manager dismissed it as “saber rattling, drum beating.”
“It’s just two dogs barking at each other,” said Kelvin Tay, regional chief investment officer at UBS Wealth Management in Singapore, referring to the escalating rhetoric between North Korea’s leader and U.S. President Donald Trump. “Do you seriously think Kim Jong Un is going to fire a missile” at one of his enemies?
Read more ....
WNU Editor: UBS Wealth Management oversees 2.2 trillion Swiss francs ($2.2 trillion). In short .... they are in the business of protecting and making money for their clients. I also read their stuff (i.e. UBS Group and others) all the time .... that is why I know that the above Bloomberg article is correct .... that when it comes to assessing the risks in potential wars, large financial institutions like UBS Group have no clue on what they are doing. C'mon .... how did they reach their 20% figure. What scale, data, and measurement did they use to assess such a risk? For an institution that handles trillions .... they seem to be whistling in the dark when it comes to assessing how potential wars may impact their clients. And that is the ugly truth .... no one can accurately assess what is the risk of war with a country like North Korea. That includes trillion dollar financial institutions, the Pentagon/White House, the defense and intelligence ministries in China, Japan, South Korea, etc.. No one really knows. As to what is my prediction for war with North Korea .... what makes me unique is that (to me) such scenarios are either 0% or 100% .... and in this case it is at 0%.
6 comments:
WNU,
I'm not that sure. NoKo put itself in a corner. NoKo is not USSR or China, all the bosses of these countries was and are pretty stable. The Kim dynasty needs enemy, but when the game is going too far the risk for the regime become all the sudden opposite. If KJU feel that a war is coming sooner or later, he knows that's the end. Who knows what the KJU's choice is?
North Korea's focus and priority is to develop and deploy a missile that can reach the U.S., and when that has been accomplished to then use that as leverage to get concessions. If North Koreans have to suffer to attain this .... so be it. The big unknown is what happens if everyone tells North Korea to f____-off. What happens after that is when a new assessment on the possibility of war will need to be done ... .and it may not be 0%.
I agree with you on either 0% or 100% on a war assessment. Very respectfully I disagree on the 0% assessment. I'd put the probability of war at 100%.
Any support we are going to get from Russia and China is likely to be immaterial at best and not enough to deter North Korea. The North Koreans believe Russia and China are behind them and America and the "west" have HUGE and VERY INFLUENTIAL 5th columns who are going to act to undermine any American response or action.
Additionally no doubt US leaders are no doubt kept up at night worrying about what actions the South Koreans might take that might draw us into war. I know from experience when people you have no control over who don't hold you in particularly high regard can harm you and how much stress this can cause. This is the casr with South Korea.
Probablity of war 100%. Probability of an American victory, not nearly so much. To the South Koreans we Americans make excellent cannon fodder!!
Had POTUS'S outreach to Russia not been undercut by petty losers and spineless cowards pethaps we would be in a better position. Alas we will never know. While the mothers of these people who did will one day regret birthing them, this does not help us now.
Probability of war = 100%. Due to a number of bad decisions made over several decades we are where we are. It cannot be changed. Our focus should be on how do we win the inevitable war or, at the very least, make the enemy's victory pyric enough that they wish they hadn't launched the attack in the first place!!
With that said if the enemy knows a fight against America will exact a heavy price perhaps they would not launch such an attack in the first place!! Currently North Korea expects a quick and easy victory. Unfortunately there's no good reason for them not to expect this.
If the enemy knows a fight against America will be VERY difficult, they would be more willing to negotiate. Right now they have no reason to fear much less respect us.
Combine a capable military with a desire for peace and good outcomes are possible. While America wants peace, admittedly our leaders, while they want it, have some trouble communicating it. This does create problems combined with the enemy knowing they have the world's top powers either behind them or uninvolved emvoldens them.
Due to the confluence of factors probability of war = 100%. Even if the US somehow runs the gauntlet and miraculously avoids it South Korea or even Japan will do sonething to draw us in. The question becomes how do we win?
Of course the US could completely and totally surrender. I don't see this as being in the natute of our current POTUS or the generals he has advising him. Furthermore I don't see South Korea or Japan allowing such a decision. We mwke uxeful pawns on their chessboard!!
We nuked Japan in WW2. Our guilt for this action is beyond measure and is a stain Americans are DESPERATELY trying to erase. Japan has used this cunningly to their advantage. This American has caught on. Other Americans have as well. Blowback from somewhere is to be expected.
While the outcome of a second Korean war cannot be "known" in advance, the threat North Korea poses to America is far greater than it was in the first Korean War. As such, the threshold at which America will use the nuclear option is likely much lower than it was in the first Korean war.
Hopefully POTUS really did upgrade our nuclear arsenal as he said he did. Candidate Trump was right when he questioned whether or not our nuclear arsenal would actually work. If so, America has a fighting chance.
B.Poster, l agree if the train stays on the tracks and continued heading in the current direction l fail to see how it can be anything than 100%.
He was speaking for himself...and stupid juvenile comments like yours is why I will no longer bother posting further comments here. You lack respect for those with contrary opions from yours, and that is the end of intelligent discourse.
Andrew,
"Traitor?!!?" I actually want us to win. I pointed out some of the problems we would face. Admittedly sometimes I can be a bit shrill and perhaps over the top. I will attempt to break this down in a way you might understand. 1.)The probability of war is 100% based upon the current trajectory. 2.)When faced with an adversary who will not negotiate with you and only wants your destruction, how doe you win? 3.)We are not going to have the support of either China or Russia and any support we might get is going to be tepid at best and insufficient to deter North Korea. 4.)America and the "west" have a huge fifth column who occupy very influential positions and are going to do everything they can to undermine any military option we may have.
In my opinion, it is the fifth column who are the traitors. Those who are patriots and are striving to represent America's best interests as I am cannot by definition be traitors.
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