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Anthony Miller, The Diplomat: The Chinese Dream in Peril: Xi Jinping and the Korean Crisis
Beijing has a vested interest in the status quo — not in the Kim dynasty.
With tensions escalating rapidly again on the Korean peninsula, the attention of the world invariably has returned to the question of whether or not the solution to the crisis lies in Beijing. After months of continuing missile tests by North Korea despite sanctions and global condemnation, Kim Jong-un’s regime claims to have tested a hydrogen bomb and once again launched an intercontinental ballistic missile over Japan. North Korea’s march toward wielding a nuclear arsenal against its neighbors and far off enemies, like the United States, is nearing completion. For Xi Jinping and the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), North Korea’s obstinate drive toward becoming a nuclear force has dealt Beijing a critical challenge at a moment when the party would prefer to focus on other matters seen as as essential to its rise as a regional and world power.
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WNU Editor: That status quo was thrown out the window when North Korea conducted its hydrogen bomb test last month, and they made public their intention to develop a nuclear ICBM force that can target the U.S.. This new situation has put the Chinese in a very difficult position, and one that they are having trouble accepting. I know that it will take time for Beijing to digest what has happened in the past few months .... but the problem is that time is no longer on the table. When Chinese President Xi convinced President Trump in April that they needed a hundred days to formulate a policy to handle North Korea .... they failed in delivering. This Chinese lost of face to President Trump cannot be underestimated .... and in a certain way it is driving Chinese policy today (i.e. try to minimise the importance of the North Korean threat). But like I said .... the status quo is no longer possible .... and time is running out.
3 comments:
The Chinese have to ask themselves these questions
1. Could it be that north Korea makes good on its numerous threats and actually launches a nuclear attack against the US or its allies? Yes/No
2. If yes, is there a chance (no matter how big, that comes later) that they actually succeed in this attack? Yes/No
3. Finally, would they (the Chinese) be seen as partially responsible in this nuclear attack? Yes/no
I think the answer to all those is yes. The likelihood in each step varies, of course. But ultimately the Chinese need to understand that there is a chance the grows every day that the north Koreans actually enter into a real nuclear confrontation with the US. And every day the north Koreans make advances in their delivery mechanisms, and the US can't keep upping their defenses at the same rate (missile defense is multiple levels harder than offence), the likelihood of one or two American cities nuked despite missile defense increases!
And you can only imagine the US reaction in case several million Americans die. It will be the reaction to 9/11, only thousand fold. I could imagine full retaliation against north Korea (and I mean it's gonna be turned into desert landscape for real), and the Chinese will have to deal with massive us troops at their border, fallout, and very very trigger happy Americans who'll poor trillions into defense and make the middle east look like a peaceful place in comparison to what might happen next to/in China - depending on how much can be proven they did. We know about the money, the oil, the mobile rocket launchers, the rocket fuel -- all that came from China and likely more aside from the political protection. And you will see American politicians and senior military all having deaths in their close families and friendship circles. Almost all of them. They will want blood and just nuking north Korea back will not satisfy them. They will look hard and long at China - and that's a staring contest China will lose.
Anonymous,
Milions of American deaths is a real possibility. As to the assertion, that China will "lose," I'm not so certain.
Dear Anon--
Why do you write that the Chinese must ask certain questions and then tell us what the answers are? In fact you are telling us what the Chinese should consider since you know and they need your advice, or aid in these matters
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