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James Stavridis, Nikkei Asian Review: China's military power already on par with US in East Asia
The dragon is catching up fast with the eagle
In his recent study of U.S.-China relations, Harvard professor Graham Allison provocatively asks whether the two superpowers of the 21st century are destined for war. After studying similar situations over the past 2,500 years -- when a rising power challenges an existing power -- the answer is that, more often than not, war is likely. The U.S. and China certainly have a basket of troublesome issues over which they disagree -- trade imbalances, collisions in cyberspace, Chinese territorial claims in the South China Sea, North Korea and uneasy Sino-Japanese relations.
The good news is that in this turbulent period, the international system has more effective tools to deal with conflict between states than ever before. Communications are instantaneous, there are international organizations and forums in which problems can be aired, economies are highly intertwined, and there is a plethora of mechanisms (academic conferences, business engagements, social networks) for informal dialog. But the possibility of a military confrontation between a rising China -- more nationalistic and muscular under President Xi Jinping -- and the U.S., led by an unpredictable and inexperienced president, cannot be ignored.
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WNU Editor: I would say that when you look at the U.S. and Chinese military force composition and deployment in East Asia .... the Chinese outnumbers the U.S. on many metrics.
4 comments:
That's true on ground forces, it looks different on navy and air force. And, on top of the cake there are many other parameters than just the number of pieces. Quality, experience, management... and so on.
So far, no worry. But if a conflict happens by miscalculation, US forces will have casualties but will win.
The only way for them to do that is at snail speed. Because they realise at snail speed, we, the west are terrible at realising what's happening. Case in point north Korea. We saw this train wreck coming for two if not three decades and kicked the buck down the road. Luckily, Putin is a bigger believer in communism than Xi is. Xi just wants money money money and wraps it nicely in a communist facade that only the very old in China believe, so they don't protest him. The young know that China is more capitalistic than even the US. Putin,however, actually has principals. He's ruthless, yes, but he's got a playbook he works by and on page one is not money. For him that's page two.
In addition. The resulting war between east and west would be epic,if they were so stupid to do it fast (not at snail speed ). And likely we all would die, including any Chinese or Russian. Very very likely the pentagon planed for that eventuality.
What should keep you awake though, is China's almost pathological need to be respected. Check out their announcement for a ten-payload-MIRV. PLA literally said they want respect now. Wtf haha they are so psychosocial it's not funny any more. Small dick syndrome. But with nukes. Expect millions to die within the next couple of decades just because China feels they are disrespected. Just because they feel entitled to have the entire south China Sea. Just because of feelings. Talked up by propaganda. And hidden behind the great firewall of China to avoid dissenting opinions. 1.4bn people living in their own reality. Happening now. Sleep well hehe
If war happens in the next 2-3 years my money is on the US.after that, it'll be a no win for either for a long time.
At some point after China consolidates their gains and after looking at the balance of power,
China will want what was taken from them around the time of the boxer Rebellion.
The land north of the Amur river.
China has got Hong Kong back.
They have not got back the land north of the Amur River.
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But there is a 3rd way! We could create the new nation of Manchuria. China and Russia could give up land!
Would Putin and Xi agree?
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Personally, I think the Manchu are rather one-sided. They can conquer the Han twice for centuries, but they want no part of a Han nation state/kingdom.
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