Russian President Vladimir Putin is flanked by Iranian President Hassan Rouhani (l) and Turkish Premier Recip Tayyip Erdogan at Sochi summit this week (Reuters) Reuters
Bethan McKernan, Oliver Carroll, The Independent: Vladimir Putin’s diplomatic push in Middle East seals both Syria’s fate and diminishing role of the US in the region
An eighth round of UN-backed Syria peace talks begin in Geneva next week. As Washington falters in the region, however, Moscow is increasingly in the driver’s seat
Exactly one year ago, Syrian President Bashar al Assad, with Russia’s help, was laying waste to the last rebel-held neighbourhoods of Aleppo.
Cluster bombs and bunker-busters fell out of the sky “like rain”, one resident said at the time. Children mistook the bright lights of phosphorous munitions for fireworks.
The fall of Aleppo turned the tide of the civil war in the regime’s favour. And this week, as Russian President Vladimir Putin meets with mR Assad and his Iranian and Turkish counterparts to discuss a framework for “post-conflict” Syria, his role as the Middle East’s most important foreign deal-breaker is secured.
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WNU Editor: Over two years ago I wrote the following post .... When It Comes To The Middle East All Roads Now Lead to Moscow (September 26, 2015). And since then .... especially now .... all roads in the Middle East are going through the Kremlin. But while I was one the first to notice this development in 2015 .... I am now going to say the opposite .... that in 2018 Russia is going to step back from the Middle East. Reasons why are many .... Russia has secured an ally in Syria, and it now has bases that it can use to maintain a Russian presence in the Middle East. In short .... the Kremlin's strategic military goals have been achieved. The problem is that the next step will involve political reconciliation in a region that has not been successful at reconciling differences, and IMHO Russia is not up to that task. Political reconciliation in Syria will involve many components .... but the main component that will reconcile all sides will be money, specifically the need to spend tens of billions of dollars to rebuild a country that has been destroyed .... money and resources that Russia simply does not have. While many are focused on the U.S. over-extending itself in many of the world's trouble spots .... Russia is experiencing that now in Syria .... there is only so much that Russia can do. There is also growing support within Russia to disengage from the Middle East .... for most Russians they see the Middle East as a quagmire, and I am sure that Putin is well aware of this sentiment and he does not want to have the image of someone who is willing to help rebuild another country, while ignoring the needs of his own citizens. So bottom line .... expect more announcements like this one .... Russia likely to reduce troops in Syria before year-end: military chief (Reuters).
8 comments:
Word is, Russia's the muscle, China's the money.
WNU,
I agree with you. This also mean that Iran will take more "responsibility" and will feel free to push its adventurism forward. That's not reassuring.
" he does not want to have the image of someone who is willing to help rebuild another country" not just before an election.
If China is indeed the money, that'd explain how Russia - with an economy smaller than Germany's - can afford this level of warfare and upgrade its military at the same time..
Syria is a prize the way Iraq was a prize for the US.
With energy independence, US and Russia will find common ground observing the nation building total war long overdue to this region.
It's all his. Putin's gentle persuasion methods should go a long way there.
" the nation building total war long overdue to this region" - jimbrown
Right or wrong way to build nations JB is probably right.
You are misreading my comment.
Russia provided the "muscle" to rescue the Assad Regime, based on their moderization, training regimes and their "learning" experiences since Chechnia.
China will be providing the funds and tech for the Syrian rebuilding, linking Syria and Iraq into the One Belt One Road Project.
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