Russian President Vladimir Putin (2nd L) and Syrian President Bashar al-Assad (2nd R) meet with servicemen as they visit the Hmeymim air base in Latakia Province, Syria, Dec. 11, 2017.
Daniel R. DePetris, National Interest: Why America Can't Win in Syria
A theoretical Syrian political transition is unachievable, and the political opposition needs to come to terms with the reality of the dictator staying in office for the near term.
Vladimir Putin, the man who has dominated Russian politics for the last seventeen years, flew into Syria this week for the first time since he ordered the Russian Air Force over two years ago to drive back Syrian rebel groups encroaching on Bashar al-Assad’s presidential palace. When Russian bombers first began their campaign, Assad’s regime looked to be on the brink of collapse. Now, the Syrian strongman is confidently resting in Damascus—his opponents, many of whom are demoralized and tired of a war now in its seventh year, are increasingly wondering if their goals of overthrowing the regime are lost.
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WNU Editor: First things first .... the above title for this National Interest article is wrong. It should be .... "Why Russia Can't Win in Syria". As to why Russia can't win in Syria .... one only has to look at what is the mood in Russia when it comes to Syria. There is very little public support in Russia for its military to continue fighting in Syria, and there is zero support to spend money in rebuilding Syria. The problem is that Putin now owns this mess, and to stabilize Syria a mega-billion dollar investment program will be required. The problem is .... who is going to donate the money? The U.S. and its allies are definitely not going to invest billions if Assad remains in power, and while the Chinese have committed some funds .... it is too small to make a difference, and there are strings attached to that money. Bottom line .... Russia is the one who must invest the necessary billions .... but like I said .... there is no support in Russia for such a policy.
4 comments:
I remember just 1-2 years ago everyone was hailing putin to be so smart, to be such a power player. ..turns out he's not turning water into wine after all. ..turns out he's losing billions and on top thousands of Russian lives. Sounds familiar? Putin is basically just copying the business model of the US and has very little innovation to add to it. And he helped a monster. And his name and legacy and the name of Russia will forever be stained by it. For what? 20bn more in arms sales? Some regional influence? What about the costs? What about the blowback to come for sure?
The same is happening with China. Just a few months ago everyone was still betting on China to be oh so smart. Look at what's happening in reality..growth in China almost as slow as in the US now (or should I say US is speeding up and china slowing down?), on top China managed in under 5 years to make enemies abroad and all around herself. Japan becoming a military power again. Vietnam resenting any Chinese influence. Australia just cracked down on Chinese meddling. South Korea is up in arms and north Korea, it's major strategic buffer zone might be lost too. For what? Some rocky islands and china's childish behaviour towards other nations.
So my point is this. The US seems to be getting the upper hand again much more quickly than we realise. That golden window of opportunity is closing very quickly for China and for Russia it's the same. In short: the USA wins because it knows how to innovate and collaborate, but more importantly because even in the age of Trump it is easy to see that neither Russia nor China have a workable grand strategy and that they're just cooking with water. China particular ..have never seen a rise that ended in a fall so quickly as for a country like them. Let's see when other commentators realise what's happening lol dropping the US dollar for the Yuan?please you can't even control your own backyard. You're light years off from establishing a world order or accepted world currency for trade
Except for me. Putin won nothing with this Syria operation. He paid price in blood and treasure but has no strategic advantage to call the shots.
Since his US presidential candidate HRC did not win, the unknown but USA first Trump will not hesitate to use F22s to make a point to Putin's air force.
Many commentators really talk smack here but above point by anon is spot on and I also think I've seen pretty good comments from you before @jimbrown :)
Maybe it's time we realise how advanced our societies are and stop being in this "oh no the Russians do xyz" mode. Let them. They are far behind. Russia's gdp is what, the size of Italy's? :))) on top Russia, given its massive borders and land mass (biggest country on earth by far and only 100mn people and an aging population that will get even smaller in the next decades).. next door neighbours must look at Russia's vast natural resources and may want some of it sooner or later. To be a super power you need the right geography and neighbours. Currently Russia has the opposite and it gets worse over time, there's no denying that. Also from a financial perspective. ..just a tenth of the US! (But a third of people)..so yeah, Russia is pretty much toast in 50 years. Do I want that? Hell no. I want Russia to be restored to its former glory. .it's just that when I think of its former glory I think of its inventions, mathematicians and contributions to philosophy and computer sciences. Putin seems to want something else. But I think the younger Russians want something along the lines what I'd wish for Russia, and I hope they get it, otherwise, nukes or not, India or China will very slowly expand and infiltrate. Don't believe me? Look at Vietnam. North Vietnam sees more and more attempts by China to change local law and language. Lot of pushback of course, but one thing the Chinese (and also radical Muslims) have in common. ..their ideology to outbreed us and slowly, bit by bit change our cultures ..making nukes or military might irrelevant. Look at Hong Kong. ..supposed to be ruled differently under agreement with China/UK. Among crackdowns you have also, even more importantly, forced resettlement..HK Chinese forced to go live in mainland China and vice versa.it's cultural engineering and the Chinese beat the crap put of Russia in that regard. So if I were Putin,I'd work with the west, which is much, much, much closer culturally and spiritually (eg christian faith, something important to putin and Russia largely, but almost forbidden and heavily monitored in China. Why? Because organised religion is seen as a competitor to the totalitarian state party..just like in nazi Germany at the beginning when the church nearly got outlawed). So please putin, for once, drop your own cold war mentality (it's not just us) and sincerely reach out..you'd be surprised how much benevolence there is in Europe for good Russians. The other way will lead to the downfall of Russia, I'm almost sure of it.
Anon 1 and 3,
I like your optimism. Hopefully you are right. Now as for Russia working with the "west," this would be a great idea. While Russia perhaps could do more here, the "west" also needs to do more. Russia has very good reasons not to trust the "west."
At the start of the Syrian civil war, I had stated that Assad could not be removed from power. The Russians would not allow it. Essentially the "rebels" had no chance. Now that Russia has "won," Assad stays in power, Assad's forces are now battle hardened and more hostile to us than they were before, Iran and its forces who supported Assad are now battle hardened and more hostile than they were before, and the same applies to Russian forces. Now that Russia has "won," they will have to figure out how to rebuild the country.
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