Tuesday, January 2, 2018

Commentaries & Analysis On The Unrest In Iran -- News Updates January 2, 2018



CNBC: A map of the worst clashes in Iran is telling experts something 'very interesting'

* Nine people were reported to have been killed during protests on Monday night, bringing the death toll from the unrest to 21
* "Crucially, the protests are now firmly beyond the control of any political factions or movements," Torbjorn Soltvedt, principal analyst for the Middle East and Northern Africa at risk consulting firm Verisk Maplecroft, told CNBC in an email Tuesday
* The ongoing clashes are the biggest public challenge to Iran's status quo since 2009, when a disputed presidential election prompted millions to take to the streets of the country to voice their anger

The geographical nature of Iran's ongoing anti-government protests is unique, analysts told CNBC on Tuesday.

Nine people were reported to have been killed during protests on Monday night, bringing the death toll from the unrest to 21. The deputy provincial governor of Tehran said Tuesday that police had arrested more than 450 protestors over the past three days, as authorities look to contain the widespread anti-government demonstrations that erupted last week.

"The geographical pattern of the protests is very interesting," Torbjorn Soltvedt, principal analyst for the Middle East and Northern Africa at risk consulting firm Verisk Maplecroft, told CNBC in an email Tuesday.

Read more ....

Commentaries & Analysis On The Unrest In Iran -- News Updates January 2, 2018

What next for Iran protests? -- AFP
Iran protests: Why is there unrest? -- BBC
Iran's Wave of Protests Show a Split at the Heart of the Country -- TIME
The West Can Help Iranians Take Back Their Country -- Eli Lake, Bloomberg
Iran's Many Failures in the Middle East -- Nimrod Hurvitz and Dror Zeevi, Haaretz
Iran’s telegram revolution -- Mahsa Alimardani, Politico
Where We Can Agree on Iran -- Mark Dubowitz and Daniel B. Shapiro, Politico
Trump Reverses the Obama Doctrine on Iran -- Ben Shapiro, NRO
Iran protests pose an unpredictable challenge for authorities -- Rana Rahimpour BBC
Protests in Iran: The genie is out of the bottle -- DW
Five things you need to know about protests in Iran -- Al Jazeera
Everything you need to know about the Iran protests -- Paul Vale, Vice
On the streets of Tehran, Iranians feel protesters’ pain -- AP

1 comment:

Publius said...

This is the best news from Iran in years.

The theocracy is clearly out of touch with many ordinary Iranians. Several articles have distinguished the ongoing demonstrations from the 2009 "green" riots:

1. The 2009 riots were stimulated by the theocracy's rigging of a presidential election. These riots are a general rejection of the regime.

2. The 2009 disorders were concentrated in Tehran, among students. The riots now are among the general population, across the country.

3. The 2009 demonstrations were before the Iranian nuclear deal negotiated with the West. This year's riots are after that deal. The regime promised their people real improvements in their standard of living, which have not happened. Instead, the theocracy has used the windfall to finance their imperialist activities in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Gaza, and Yemen. Note that protesters now are also denouncing Iran's foreign interventions. That did not happen in 2009.

4. Iran has not released casualty figures, but their military interventions around the region must have cost at least hundreds (thousands?) of Iranian lives, plus wounded. I wonder whether those soldiers were revolutionary guards or ordinary army troops. If the latter, that would be another source of unhappiness among the ordinary population.

5. Note that the Maximum Ayatollah has (a) been forced to speak, and (b) blamed the disorders on foreign "enemies". This is an attempt to deny the notion that the Iranian people have legitimate grievances with their Government. In other words, the theocracy rejects all criticism as treason. This position tacitly concedes that the regime plans to survive by force, by repression. Iran has invested heavily in its Revolutionary Guards, who exist to handle civil opposition such as this. But repression is a funny thing. The power of the security services to repress always looks invincible, until suddenly it is not. I am reminded of the speed with which Ceausescu's position crumbled in 1989.

6. I think that events are unpredictable in Iran now. If I were one of the ayatollahs, I would be alarmed.