Sunday, January 7, 2018

Did The U.S. Intelligence Community Underestimate North Korea's Nuclear And Missile Program?

The ICBM Hwasong-15 was launched in Pyongyang, North Korea in November. It's said the missile, pictured, can fly more than 8,000 miles and reach Washington

New York Times: How U.S. Intelligence Agencies Underestimated North Korea

WASHINGTON — At the start of Donald Trump’s presidency, American intelligence agencies told the new administration that while North Korea had built the bomb, there was still ample time — upward of four years — to slow or stop its development of a missile capable of hitting an American city with a nuclear warhead.

The North’s young leader, Kim Jong-un, faced a range of troubles, they assured the new administration, giving Mr. Trump time to explore negotiations or pursue countermeasures. One official who participated in the early policy reviews said estimates suggested Mr. Kim would be unable to strike the continental United States until 2020, perhaps even 2022.

Mr. Kim tested eight intermediate-range missiles in 2016, but seven blew up on the pad or shattered in flight — which some officials attributed partly to an American sabotage program accelerated by President Barack Obama. And while the North had carried out five underground atomic tests, the intelligence community estimated that it remained years away from developing a more powerful type of weapon known as a hydrogen bomb.

Within months, those comforting assessments looked wildly out of date.

Read more ....

Update: How the intelligence agencies wildly underestimated North Korea's nuclear capabilities: Trump was told he had YEARS before there would be a missile capable of hitting the US (Daily Mail).

WNU Editor: The above New York Times report is pushing the narrative that the intel community is/has been shocked and surprised on how quickly North Korea's nuclear and missile program has advanced in the past two years. It also defends the previous administration by saying that President Obama did warn President Trump that North Korea was a major threat, and that if the White House had received proper intelligence, they would have acted differently. The problem with this New Your Times' report is that it is wrong .... the U.S. intelligence community has always been aware on how quickly the North Koreans were advancing in their missile and nuclear programs, and they did warn the White House in 2013!!!!! .... U.S. Intelligence Agencies Knew In 2013 That North Korea Was Capable Of Miniaturizing Nuclear Weapons (August 10, 2017). This was not an intelligence failure .... this was a political failure, and as I explained in this commentary, my gut is telling me that because the White House did not want to make the hard decisions on North Korea, they choose to ignore and/or disregard all the warning signs in 2013. This is probably the reason why President Trump is upset .... in his mind .... especially after being briefed as President-elect on the North Korean threat .... he cannot help but feel that senior Obama officials (and probably President Obama himself) knew over 4 years ago on what was happening in North Korea, but choose to ignore it.

7 comments:

Bob Huntley said...

IN 2080, as humanity is only just beginning to recover, a son asks his father "Why did the people of 2020 decide to destroy so much with their bombs?"

The father responds with "There was no valid reason why it happened. Reckless rhetoric led to even more dangerous rhetoric until someone made a mistake and thought that nuclear weapons has been launched against them and so they launched theirs. It got worse from there. Now hurry up and eat your thistles and cockroaches so we can go for our walk."

Anonymous said...

I'm quite sure we'll soon find out it was actually China that yet again provided that bit of technology to North Korea -- they have everything else, from the mobile missile launch systems, to the oil and rocket fuel even. So, common.. suddenly North Korea leaps ahead, surprising everyone and we are meant to believe that this country, that barely could live on its own, didn't get the tech from China? LOL

Bob Huntley said...

Find out? Who really cares who helped them? What are they going to do if China admitted it, start to embargo that country? It seems to be the job of powerful nations to arm lesser nations with killing power and NK has done well to get where they are now against extreme odds.

The real question is, are efforts going to be stepped up to bring the issue to a head? You know more massive naval exercises and demonstrations of air superiority?

What an insane waste of resource.

Anonymous said...

Bob, why find out? To understand what exactly is happening is an important, perhaps the most important aspect to any decision-making process.
On top, I fail to see any suggestion to resolving the situation from your side?

So you don't believe in informing oneself ahead of perhaps very consequential decision making and on top you don't contribute to the solution but just snipe.

fazman said...

Bob l gotta say it does need to be brought to a head , and the resources the u.s else expend in the,aftermath is perhaps the most important expenditure since Pearl.

Bob Huntley said...

Oh Anon I agree that in the decision making process fully researching a subject that leads to a decision is an absolute need.

What is done with the information obtained, i.e., interpreted, modified, understood or misunderstood (perhaps intentionally), and how it affects the decision process is the important thing. The US has shown a propensity to interrupt things to its own advantage, or, purpose at any given time, that led to e.g., Iran, Vietnam, Iraq 2, and perhaps 100 more made up wars.

My issue isn't at all with the need to research causes and implication, only that the US is not the animal to be doing it on the world stage.

Fazman. If China is/was the provider, perhaps it is they who, based on their interpretation of other events, did so to bring the overall matter to a head.

As regards the "Pearl" there is serious question as to whether that event was "allowed" to happen.

Bob Huntley said...

Anon. "On top, I fail to see any suggestion to resolving the situation from your side?"

If you mean to resolve the overall North Korean situation. I say the US should go home.