Danny Lam, Warrior Maven: After Destroying North Korea's Military: What Next? Winning the Peace
Once the US achieves the military destruction of North Korea, what next? How could it win the more difficult Peace?
Militarily defeating a nuclear armed North Korea with minimalrisks, low allied and DPRK casualties is possible. But that leads to the question of what sort of a post war Korea would emerge and how the peace can be won.
Winning the peace is a distinctly different task from fighting and winning the war. It requires different preparation, mindsets, training, expertise, and experience, much of which are not part of standard military repertoire. Occupational armies more often than not, lose the peace after winning the war.
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WNU Editor: A lot of assumptions and speculation in the above article. But it is true that in the end .... this will not be a U.S. or China or Russia or Japan problem to work out .... this will be something that the Korean people themselves must resolve. And like the Germans when they unified, I am confident and optimistic that the Koreans will resolve their divisions amicably that will "win the peace".
2 comments:
I like your optimism in your editor comment. Unfortunately I don't share it.
We foolishly stumbled into a conflict back in the early 1950s between a peoples that had been going on for some time. Perhaps we did it to "make the world safe for democracy" or some other ridiculous nonsense.
First of all in order to win any peace the North Korean military must be defeated. This is by no means guaranteed or an easy feat. Should Russia get involved defeating NK will be all but impossible. Should China get involved a conventional victory will be virtually impossible. In other words, in order to survive we will need to go nuclear and we will need to do so very quickly.
This assumes our arsenal still works. Given the poor training of the personnel and the poor maintenance of the arsenal, candidate Trump was right to ask if our arsenal would actually work. POTUS said the first thing he did was to upgrade this arsenal. I hope this is correct.
Ultimately how this is probably going to be "won" is going to be by the elimination of South Korea. This will mean no "western" countty on China's borders. China gets to have their f'cking century, and we get to position ourselves to prosper within it like America never has in its history.
33% of South Korean military officers view us as the main enemy with another 33% undecided. Prediction: if hot war breaks out, the undecided will face tremendous pressure to side with those who view America as the main enemy. Essentially we are going to find ourselves trapped between two implacable enemies.
South Korea has always been a dead end for us, costing much while contributing little. Nevertheless we should not abandon our "ally." There does need to be a timetable reasonably agreed to by the parties that allows us to FINALLY withdraw our forces and end our national humiliation here.
If we were to jettison the dead weight of South Korea, I can see how this would allow us flexibility to negotiate an acceptable arrangement with North Korea and their benefactors. Also, being freed from the South Korean yoke will allow us more flexibility should we need to persue military options against North Korea.
During the process I'm pretty sure South Korea will survive. They will choose to do so!!
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