Oil workers conduct a drill in a petroleum well in Lagunillas at the east coast of Lake Maracaibo near Maracaibo City in Venezuela. Jorge Silva/Reuters
CNBC: North Korea may have just given US much needed win in war waged by sanctions
* The United States is using energy sanctions around the world to bring its rivals to heel.
* Some foreign policy analysts warn that the penalties are falling short of their aim.
* Sanctions are most effective when there is broad international support and a clear goal.
* On Tuesday, North Korea said it was open to talking to South Korea and the U.S. regarding denuclearization and normalizing ties.
The United States is deploying energy sanctions from Caracas, Venezuela, to the Korean Peninsula in a bid to bring its rivals to heel. On Tuesday there was a potential breakthrough: A South Korea delegation that met leader Kim Jong Un reported that the North Korean leader is willing to hold talks with the U.S. on denuclearization and normalizing ties. They also said North and South Korea will hold their first summit meeting in more than a decade in late April.
If North Korea fulfills those promises that would be a big win and sign that the recent ineffectiveness of sanctions against some of the United States' biggest enemies — which have fallen short of their goals — may not apply to North Korea. Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin said on Tuesday that more sanctions against Russia will be unveiled in the coming weeks.
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WNU Editor: Venezuela is not getting the expertise it needs to run its oil industry. Iran is still barred from many international banks. And North Korea is limited on purchasing oil supplies. So yes .... The U.S. is using energy sanctions to put pressure on many of its foes .... and IMHO it looks like it is working (at least in the case of North Korea).
3 comments:
Don't forget other states. .like Russia, Saudi Arabia. ..not enemies. .but they all certainly make less money of oil AND gas because the US suddenly produces vast amounts. This started under Obama and think it was a really good move to become energy independent...it has environmental consequences for sure, especially fracking..but I think it's still vastly better than empowering Iran and other nations that are typically run by strong men who don't invest in their populations but just use their resources. Soon this business and governmental model will come to and end.
Sanctions is a dumb policy , Cuba for 58+ Years until US backed , Iran for 39+ years . Sanction never work and result in growing international black markets to serve the countries sanctioned . And increase the regime point of view as the nation being targeted . The right solution is either establish normal relation and cultivate allies inside the regime or go to war .
The function of sanctions is to serve the politicians PR as showing that they are doing something. The DPRK move to the table has nothing to do with sanctions and all to do with the cracks between the south Korean gov and US . Wait when the north offer south and only the south concession on the nuclear program which the US will of course refuse and will want full disarmament . Thing will start to look interesting.
Anon # 2,
I have tried to respond to your post but my response was over the character limit the editor allows. I will try and shorten.
Generally I agree with everything you wrote about sanctions. There is little I can add except they often prolong the survival of a government that would have fallen by driving the citizens of the nation into the arms of the leaders as well external enemies of America to the aid of the country being sanctioned.
As I have pointed out elsewhere on this site, South Korea is not a reliable ally. At best, the relationship is an up and down one. Cracks in this relationship have always been present. In contrast, sanctions against North Korea agreed to by both Russia and China combined with the fact that the United States now has a president who is a highly skilled negotiator are new. Additionally, the North Korean rush to the negotiating table, the sanctions agreed to by Russia and China, and the election to POTUS by the US of a highly skilled negotiator occurred in close proximity to each other with the election of Mr. Trump occurring, the sanctions being agreed to, and now a rush by North Korea to negotiate whereas cracks in the relationship have always been there. As such, it seems reasonable to discount the theory that cracks in the relationship are having an effect. The evidence appears extremely strong for the sanctions along with a US POTUS who won't be intimidated as the primary driving force behind North Korea wanting to negotiate as these are new factors in the equation and they occurred relatively close together.
Now anonymous, should North Korea offer concessions to South Korea with regards to the nuclear program, not extend those to America, and South Korea should accept this the threat to America would not be eliminated. If this were to happen, we should and probably would view this as a base betrayal of us by our South Korean "ally" and we should act accordingly.
Let's see here anonymous. Two can play at this betrayal "game." What if we were to jettison South Korea? This would give us more flexibility in negotiating with North Korea. Should war become our only option, when freed from the South Korean yoke, we would be far more flexible as far as military options are concerned.
Let's see here. What information might we be able to offer North Korea regarding South Korean defenses? What would China and Russia think about this? what if South Korea were to disappear? It does seem clear that South Korea has been and continues to be a major impediment for us in trying to improve relations between us and two very important countries. Without this impediment I can see huge upside potential coupled with little to no downside risks.
If South Korea should be considering betraying us in this manner, I would suggest DON'T!! During the negotiating process South Korea needs to ensure that America and Americans are treated with dignity and respected as equal to them. They haven't been doing this for decades. To do so would be a BIG adjustment for them.
If they do ultimately decide to betray us in the manner you seem to suggest, things will "start to look very interesting" as you seem to suggest. South Korea has essentially used America as their pawn for decades and the US military as an arm in their policy. Do they really want to give this up? Such a betrayal would likely mean the end of the "alliance." At a minimum the nature of the alliance will need to be changed going forward. It would not be prudent for South Korea to betray us at this juncture.
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