Reuters
Jamie Metzl, National Interest: Doomsday: Why We Must Prepare for the Coming Collapse of North Korea
The good news is that this collapse has the potential to be a win-win for nearly everyone. The North Korean people will end their terrible suffering, North and South Korea will be reunified under South Korean law, potentially following a UN-administered transitional period and referendum, the specter of a rogue nuclear nation at the heart of Asia will be removed, and China will gain a valuable trading partner in a unified Korea and access to Seoul’s high tech economy and northern Korea’s natural resources through high quality rail, road, and communications links. American troops could even be maintained below the 38th parallel to ease China’s fears of encirclement, with the long-term international relations of a unified Korea being up to the Korean people.
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WNU Editor: I have always believed that the most brutal regimes can only be overthrown by outside forces. Case in point .... even though the Pol Pot regime in Cambodia murdered millions when they took over the country in 1975, they were only overthrown when the Vietnamese invaded the country 4 years later. I can say the same about North Korea. Regardless of how bad the North Korean government behaves, its reign of terror is more then enough to keep control of the country for an indefinite period of time. It can only be overthrown if the countries on its borders make the decision to intervene .... whether covertly or overtly .... to overthrow the government. But as of today .... China and South Korea .... while resenting the regime, are in a defensive posture and have shown no interest in implementing a regime change policy. Hence .... I do not expect such a change to happen.
2 comments:
Wnu, i thought based on your experience you would agree that the regime would fall without intervention
Anon. It does happen .... but rarely. The hope is that the elites who rule behind Kim jong-un will one day feel that their privileges are at risk and they will act against him. Sanctions should do that. But all of this takes time, and there are no guarantees.
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