Tom O'Connor, Newsweek: Turkey Is Launching the Next Middle East War With Attacks on Kurds in Iraq and Syria
The U.S. and Turkey have offered conflicting statements as to whether Washington had agreed to allow Ankara to expand its war against Kurdish fighters operating alongside U.S. Special Forces in Syria. Meanwhile, new Turkish airstrikes targeted other Kurdish fighters in Iraq on Wednesday, signaling a new phase of conflict in two nations still reeling from being partially overtaken by the Islamic State militant group (ISIS).
Ibrahim Kalin, a spokesman for Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, initially told Al Jazeera on Monday that his government had reached a general agreement with the U.S., one that would allow Turkish forces and their Syrian rebel allies to expand an offensive against Syrian Kurdish fighters across northern Syria. The U.S. has trained and equipped a number of these Kurdish groups, including the People's Protection Units (YPG), in order to fight ISIS as part of the larger Pentagon-backed Syrian Democratic Forces.
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WNU Editor: Some are speculating that this victory by the Turkish-backed Syrian rebels over the Kurds is a sign that they should not be taken lightly .... Syrian rebel victory in Afrin reveals strength of Turkish-backed force (The Guardian). There is also speculation that Turkey will now confront U.S. forces in Syria .... After victory in Afrin, a Turkey-US confrontation looms in Syria (Middle East Eye). Considering the current atmosphere in Turkey and in Syria .... and this easy victory in Afrin .... I will not be surprised if such a confrontation does occur.
4 comments:
Crunch time in the Middle East is at hand now that ISIS has lost. All the local actors are up to their eye brows in killing, plotting, lying and betraying as they try and achieve their national goals. The US and Russia are the only ones distant from the fray that also have big national goals. The Russians wanted a secure Tartus naval base and the Damascus area to the Med under Assad's control. That has been accomplished.
What does the US want? ISIS is gone, wasn't that the mission defined by Obama and Trump? Not exactly since we all know what happens if the US withdraws, ISIS ver 2 or 3 or 4.
If the US bends to Turkish demands, the US will lose its credibility with the Sunni's and Israeli's. That also means losing many billions annually in DOD sales. Oh and ISIS and its kin will likely return.
If the US decides it likes controlling Syrian territory with the Kurds, then it confronts Turkey, possibly in a military struggle. Russia then gets the great prize it's coveted since the Czar's days, Turkey under their patronage if not alliance.
For the US, this is shaping up as the No Win Scenario.
Anonymous might be right.
Having said that, I think that there is another way to look at the situation in Northern Syria and Northern Iraq.
It is certainly true that the United States backs the Kurds in Syria and Iraq, and that Turkey views the Kurds as deadly enemies. Turkey would like to attack the Kurds in both countries.
It is also true that Turkey's goals in Syria are opposed to Russia's and Iran's:
(1) Turkey prefers that Assad leave office (although they will acknowledge that Assad will stay inasmuch as he is winning the civil war);
(2) Turkey likely does not view the Russian bases in Syria and influence over Assad as being in Turkey's interest. Russia has threatened Turkey's independence more or less constantly under the Tsars, under the Communists, and now under Putin;
(3) Turkey likely does not view Iranian hegemony over Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon as being in Turkey's interest.
In light of those considerations, the key question for Turkey is: whether Turkey's position regarding points 1-3 is enhanced or weakened if the United States withdraws from Syria and/or Iraq. The USA's continued presence in Syria and Iraq "costs" Turkey the continued stronger presence of the Kurds in both countries than would exist if the USA withdraws and abandons the Kurds to their fate. But an American withdrawal would also weaken Turkey's position regarding points 1-3. In my view, the Turks likely view the Kurds as Jesus described the poor: they will be with us always. But Turkey's larger interests would be harmed, not helped, if the USA withdraws.
Turkey ought to be thrilled to have the US take part in settling Syria's affairs. We will help tilt the table away from Russia and Iran while Syria remains for years to come a rich field for jihadi's. Iran will be a nuclear power sooner than Turkey, so those B-61's at Incirlik serve as Turkey's deterrence. Yet Erodgan seems to be eagerly selling his US alliance for the sake of domestic politics. The unthinkable might come to pass with the US pulling a British move and exit its military policing role in that region. Trump is unafraid to kick the table over, see the Paris deal, calling Germany a bad actor and cheat, starting a trade war with China and renegotiating NAFTA. Upending 60 years of US policy in the Middle East is possible.
I am amazed how well the Turks did against the Kurds given that all the senior and middle leadership of the Turkish military if rotting in the lowest dungeons available. Maybe it is a better indication of just how poor a fighting force the Kurds are. Which may indicate how really poor Daesh really was.
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