Stratfor: The Good, the Bad and the Ugly of a U.S. Pullout From Syria
Highlights
* President Donald Trump is pushing for a withdrawal of U.S. forces from Syria, citing the considerable resources the United States has expended in the Middle East.
* A U.S. pullout from Syria could pave the way for an improvement in relations with Turkey and Russia.
* A withdrawal could also damage U.S. credibility, hamper the fight against the Islamic State and weaken Washington's ability to pressure Iran.
If President Donald Trump gets his way, the United States will soon be heading for the door in Syria. At a March 29 rally, the president said that troops will be leaving "very soon." And about a week later, The Washington Post reported that Trump had instructed the Department of Defense to draw up exit plans, although he didn't set a deadline. The likelihood of a pullout is uncertain because the Pentagon, the State Department and other parts of the U.S. government are pushing the case that the United States needs to remain in Syria. Furthermore, a withdrawal will create power vacuums, affect relations with enemies and allies, and weaken U.S. influence in the region.
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WNU Editor: The U.S. is not an empire and it cannot be everywhere at the same time. Is having a presence in Syria a manner of national security and vital for the long term interests of the U.S. .... maybe short term the answer is yes .... but in the medium-to-long term .... a definite no.
13 comments:
Is it in the interests for Russia and Iran to be there? In the short term and in the long term? but they will stay the course...wonder why?
Editor,
Your comment pretty much sums it up nicely. We have a chance to get out of something now we never should have gotten into in the first place. Unless something has changed it seems the Iranian front is quite right now. While we cannot "know" for certain, I think this is an example of shrewd Trump diplomacy at work. They won't be able to count on unconditional Russian support in their never ending quest to hurt Americans. This will likely go a long way towards changing their behavior. In the meantime, if it works out America gets to defuse tensions with a very important world power. Win/win all the way around unless those who seem to want conflict with Russia at any cost have their way.
good to see you are up early and doing your job!If we should not be in Syria there is even more reasons we should not be in Afghanistan...and yet Trump/Putin/Poster want us to leave and to allow Russia and Iran to stay
THIS IS SO OBVIOUS THAT I AM ASHAMED TO EVEN BE ANSWERING YOU COMRADE
The US isn't leaving Syria anytime soon. Trump's statement is calculated to wrong foot Iran, Turkey, Russia and others they have aligned with, such as AQ. The US's investment in Syria is financially quite modest and with very few casualties. Leaving Syria undermines if not defeats the strategy laid out last May, 2017 when Trump went to the Middle East and met with all the key Sunni leadership and Israel. In fact Syria is a model of future US interventions in the region. We supply what's needed away from the front line while the locals do the up close fighting and dying.
They should have left long ago.
Fred,
Actually we should leave Afghanistan. This is another matter entirely. When you are losing an argument as you are, you must change the subject, put up talking points, and otherwise obfuscate. The reason you are ashamed to answer is likely because you are ashamed of yourself knowing your arguments are weak and not based upon sound thinking or the national interest of the United States.
Actually it would probably be better if you not answer as you have nothing to offer except bitterness and hatred and you waste my time. When you have something to offer except for changing the subject when you are losing the argument, putting up talking points in attempt to divert the subject, and general bitterness, I am happy to engage in constructive dialogue, time permitting, even where I disagree. There is actually much that can be learned from discussing things with people we disagree with. Unfortunately at this time, very respectfully, I don't think you are interested in learning.
In the meantime, the editor has expressed this perfectly. When properly explained the American people will agree, they are going to agree with this sentiment. If you want to be an imperial power, you are going to need to do it through subterfuge which is getting harder and harder for you to do. I close by reminding of Canada's foreign policy. We would do well to study it and implement where and when we can.
Anon,
You may be on to something here. I do hope not. If this is going to be the strategy, then we should expect blowback. These things seldom stay contained. Reference 911. I am NOT suggesting the US was responsible for 911 but I do think serial meddling in the middle eastern affairs that we did not/do not understand had a role in this. Such strategies will need to be explained to the American people as they need to understand the risk our government is placing them and their families under.
At least you are keeping this constructive and putting forth a valid argument. Deal making and negotiations often do involve misdirection. When this is required, I would likely be quite bad at it!!
When DJT suggested getting out of Syria, he was spot on. The editor has picked up on the same thing. I think he really does want us out. If Iran were being "wrong footed," I think this would be a difficult deception to pull off. Furthermore, unless things have changed, the Iranian front is relatively quite right now. Russia is likely holding this in check or offering us a huge assist in return for SOMETHING. Unfortunately POTUS has had trouble standing up to the generals. Unless he can overcome this, the whole thing could be nixed. My suggestion would to hold POTUS's "feet to the fire" to ensure that he follows through on the redeployment from Syria.
After reading the lengthy article the editor linked to on the crazy plan to confront Russia, China, and all of their allies my first thought was THESE PEOPLE ARE NUTS!! Upon further reflection, those people actually belong in insane asylums and not setting military or foreign policy for a major world power. The only path on the table with a chance to work is the DJT model. Ironically the author seems to acknowledge this but his hatred for POTUS clouds his judgment!!
does the boss allow name calling? wow
Russian goofed in Afghanistan and now you think we should be out? any plans for mother russia to move back in?
Iran is hardly quite simply because they do not make loud noises on the net...they are all over Lebanon and Syria too. You do the talking,noise making for them...good that you are so clear that you are pro assad, pro turkey, pro iran and paid by that other nation...meanwhile, plz dont tell me what Iknow and do not know...you are pro Trump so long as he remains butt boy for killer Putin
B. Poster, I'm not worried about inciting blowback, that is a fixture from that region for decades to come no matter what we do. The Saudi MsB has just said Israel has a right to exist. Impossible everyone would have said just last week. A fact today. Fracking and Trump have changed everything. Now the US doesn't need Saudi Arabia or Kuwait for their oil supplies. They need the USA.
This is the deal Trump is pushing it seems to me, if they want US help to defend their interests, make me an offer.
Turkey has chosen to unhitch with the West and hitch to China-Russia-Iran-North Korea. So be it, we'll just have to go thru a very messy divorce with Turkey. Again US energy supplies permit this, and it will be much more a European problem. Let the feckless Germans deal with the blowback and maybe they'll find a reason to have at least a military that can guard their borders from mobs.
Fred,
Just because we do not support a given military action does not mean we are pro the other side. As our founding fathers understood, the US cannot go through the world looking for monsters to slay.
What I meant by Iran being quite is as I think the editor meant it an in avoiding direct conflict with American forces and not challenging the US Navy. I could be wrong but I think its Trump diplomacy at work. It's the only new variable.
Personally I have no idea what Russia would do. I have no contact with them. I do, however, trust the editor's take on this. He has stated repeatedly Russia wants no part of Afghanistan. Given their prior experience there this seems reasonable. Furthermore he has stated, if I unserstand correctly, that it would be damaging to any Russian leader to intervene in Afghanistan. This to seems reasonable.
In spite of this, US generals make up fantastic claims of Russia aiding the Taliban!!! Extraordinary claims require extraordinary proof. What evidence do they provide? None!! As I state elsewhere these Pentagon officials appear to have gone pathologically insane. We can only hope and pray God's grace sustains us until sanity can be restored. I seriously don't think Russia would want to go back in. If so Russia and the Taliban can tear each other apart!! Not our problem.
Anon,
Thank you for the reply. Your "take" is interesting. I agree with you that there is some truth to the statement that "no matter what we do" they won't like us, however, very respectfully I believe some of our serial interventions without a proper understanding has exacerbated the exacerbated the problem.
I agree that getting Saudi Arabia to recognize Israel is huge. I think this is more Trump diplomacy at work. It's the only new variable in this equation. Fracking is huge as well. The US truly could become an energy superpower and could even get better terms in its dealings with "allies"!! This is truly exciting!! As an American, I've always dreamed of my country being a great country!! We FINALLY may be able to fulfill this dream!!
With this said my "take" is different than yours. As I pointed out back in 2011, a Syrian policy based upon "Assad must go" could not succeed. Russia wouldn't allow it and we lack the capable allies or the neccessary reason to commit to that. Basically POTUS is resetting America's foreign policy to one that makes sense with our strategic intersts in mind. As I often say, when in a hole, first course of action is STOP DIGGING!!
Anon,
The post ran long do I thought it best to break it up. Now Putin is going to allow us a face saving redeployment away from Syria. Again, we are setting a flawed policy from the start right. There's even talk of getting to pull out of the Iran deal!! This was flawed from the start. Obviously we are going to need to renegotiate it. It's unlikely this could happen without Russian assistance. Iran being aware of all of all of this is being eerily quite right now. We obviously made certain concessions. What might they hsve been? I have not quite figured this out. Unfortunately the media is to smitten with Trump hatred to look into it. As the editor points out, Russia is the go to countty in the Middle East. This happened before DJT became office. Perhaps POTUS acknowledged this. Maybe it really is that simple!!
This would prove the age old adage that it really is better to have good working relations with the powerful than to recklessly go out of the way to pick fights with them!! One lives longer and has greater opportunities for advancement. A POTUS and a team whom the Russians respect is a national treasure that we should not carelessly throw away!! To think that petty stupidity combined with ideological could destroy all of this is heartbreaking and gut wrenching!! If such people were to succeed, history would not look kindly upon them. If others could undo the damage they've wrought, perhaps it wouldn't be to bad.
Maybe you're right. Maybe I'm wrong. Perhaps we are both wrong!! I do find it fascinating that smart people can look at the exact ssme data, at the same time, and under the exact same conditions and come to completely different conclusions!!
Anon,
I also agree with you that the Germans will need to develop credible military capabilities. The current NATO arrangement with America isn't sustainable, is enormously costly to us, and undermines our security.
Perhaps a model similar to what has shown promise with South Korea might work. Candidate Trump correctly called them out. The handwriting was/is on the wall. The US simply will not serve as their chumps forever. As such, they've gotten busy actually trying to make peace. SK has even talked of strengthening their military with nuclear submarines. Who knows? This might even become a real alliance!! Germany is not the same but a similar approach might work.
Sorry about the multiple posts. Again, thanks for the reply.
LOGIC .BASED ON OUR (AMERICA)FOREIGN POLICY WE ARE IN SYRIA SOLEY TO DESTROY(REGIME CHANGE),PARTITION,CONTROL SYRIA AND TAKE AWAY IRAN,SYRIA,HEZBOLLAH AXIS AND INFLUENCE, IF WE PULL OUT WE LEAVE IRAN TO GAIN DEFACTO CONTROL OF INFLUENCE IN REGION AND THREATEN OUR/ISRAELI/ARAB INTERESTS AND SECURITY...IF WE STAY WE BOG DOWN FOR LONG FIGHT OF HYBRID PROXY WARFARE AND PRESSURE IRAN, RUSSIA. EITHER WAY YOU LOOK AT IT IN LON RUN AMERICAN INFLUENCE IS DWINDLING UNLESS WE DEFEAT IRAN (SOMEHOW??!!) AND ECONOMICALLY RESTRAIN RUSSIAN AND CHINA. I THINK OUR TIME IS COMING TO END IN THE FAR FUTURE UNLESS WE ENGAGE IN ALL OUT WAR
NOT SAYIMG I CONDONE OR WANT THAT. I LOOK AT IT ALL PERSONALLY AS A STRATEGIC GEOPOLITICAL CHESSGAME . I ADMIRE THE MILITARY STRATEGIES AND TACTICS OF WARFARE EVEN THE ECONOMIC AND POLITICAL ASPECTS. I ADMIRE THE SYRIAN ARMY AND HEZBOLLAH IN ITS CONFLICT WITH SAUDIS UAE ETC . I ADMIRE .HEZBOLLAHS CAPABILITIES AS WELL AS ISRAELIS .ISRAEL IS A COLONIZING AGGRESSOR .BUT THEY ASLO ARE THERE TO SAY AND HAVE RIGHT TO EXIST AND I ADMIRE THERE MILATARY PROWESS I CAN GO ON FOREVER
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