President Trump addresses the media May 8 at the White House after announcing his intention to withdraw from the nuclear agreement with Iran. National security adviser John Bolton and Vice President Mike Pence are in the background. (Photo: Jonathan Ernst/Reuters)
James Kitfield, Yahoo News: Europe will try to keep the Iran deal alive. It can't.
When national security adviser John Bolton stood before the White House press corps on Tuesday detailing President Trump’s decision to walk away from the multilateral nuclear agreement to constrain Iran’s nuclear program, it reminded some observers of events 15 years ago, when Bolton was a cheerleader in the Bush administration for the invasion of Iraq, intended to dismantle Saddam Hussein’s stockpile of weapons of mass destruction — which turned out not to exist.
While technically the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, the agreement among Iran, the United States and five other major powers, can remain in effect even after Washington pulls out, Bolton’s history suggests that the administration may have a more ambitious goal to implode the agreement altogether. The sanctions Trump is reimposing aren’t just on Iran but on other entities that do business there, such as banks.
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WNU Editor: These type of sanctions .... targeting companies that do business with Iran .... are incredibly effective. No reputable business/conglomerate/bank is going to risk its business model and relationship with the U.S. for a few trade deals with Iran. No one. And the Europeans are not going to get into a tit-for-tat situation with the U.S. should the U.S. start punishing European companies that are doing business with Iran. The Iranians are not worth that type of "heat". Who may end up doing business with Iran are Russian and Chinese shell companies .... but they are not going to be cheap. Bottom line .... I for one will not be surprised if by next year the Europeans have negotiated a compromise with the Iranians that will be acceptable to the Trump administration. But at this moment in time .... if you have a business in Iran, the time to leave is now.
4 comments:
Interesting take.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7SV9eRoaNyc
"I for one will not be surprise...." I would be "surprised" in the sense that I don't think it is going to be a "year from now." I predict this will happen much sooner. I anticipate this will happen within three months, if not sooner.
The Israelis have already provided evidence that Iran is not in compliance even though the "experts" have been trying in desperation to try and spin this as though the Israelis somehow presented old evidence. By this time next year I predict the evidence will be so overwhelming that Iran was cheating on the deal that it will be impossible for the supporters of the deal to spin this away. By this time next year POTUS will have been the primary driving force behind the elimination of the Iranian nuclear weapons program as well as achieving a lasting peace between North and South Korea. The predictions could prove to be in error. Time will tell.
comrade: israel's Bibi a showman like Trump and what he revealed was all known years ago
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This is the desperate spin that the Israeli information is nothing new. Thanks for the links but this appears to be nothing particularly new and seems par for the course in the world everyday.
Now as I have said before I think you could make the case for keeping this deal under the premise it is the best we can get and the alternatives are worse. I simply don't share those sentiments. My predictions still stands.
As for your comrade comment, I hate Communism. You would know this if you actually read my posts. I find you resort to this sort of thing when you really don't have a valid argument.
What I would find as idiocy is sticking to an agreement that doesn't have valid enforcement mechanisms, provides no real disincentives for Iran to cheat, and huge upside potential for Iran to cheat as this one seems to.
I have also noticed that as POTUS has announced our pulling out of this deal positive developments in the North Korean and South Korean diplomacy seem to have accelerated. I think the two are positively correlated. While I could be in error, I think all sides are getting the message that in POTUS they are dealing with a far more capable person than the US has had as POTUS for at least the previous two administrations.
I believe with a flawed deal of this magnitude the first step is to get rid of it as keeping it all but assured we would be dealing with a nuclear armed Iran sooner rather than later. Then we work on renegotiating it. Sometimes doing the right thing requires great courage and requires someone to take steps alone. Few have such courage. While there have been some failings, overall I have been impressed with the intestinal fortitude and courage of POTUS. From all appearances taking a different path would have offered less resistance.
In the above post I predicted what I think will happen. We shall see if I am right.
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