Tuesday, May 29, 2018

New Study Says Nearly 5,000 Died In Puerto Rico Due To Hurricane Maria



The Hill: Puerto Rico hurricane death toll 70 times higher than official government estimate, says study

Nearly 5,000 people died in Puerto Rico due to Hurricane Maria, more than 70 times more than the official government death toll, according to a new study from The New England Journal of Medicine.

The study, released Tuesday, calls the official government estimate a "substantial underestimate" while saying that an adjusted statistic could point to as many as 5,740 more deaths than the official estimate.

The death toll according to Puerto Rico’s government is 64.

Read more ....

Update #1: Puerto Rican death toll from Hurricane Maria 73 times official tally: study (Reuters)
Update #2: Study Puts Puerto Rico Death Toll From Hurricane Maria Near 5,000 (NPR)

WNU Editor: This is how they came to this number ....

.... The research team randomly selected 3,299 households in Puerto Rico. Local scientists surveyed them over the course of three weeks in January. People in those homes reported a total of 38 deaths. The scientists then extrapolated that finding to the island's total population of 3.4 million people to estimate the number of deaths. The researchers then subtracted deaths recorded during that same period in 2016 and concluded that the mortality rate in Puerto Rico had jumped 62 percent in the three months following the storm.

This reminds me of how they calculated births 9 months after an power failure .... and find that there is usually an increase. But in the case of births .... we do know officially the exact number, in this case we do not .... its a random sample using a computer model to project how many people died during a certain period of time, and comparing that to the numbers from the previous year.

The findings are being published today by The New England Journal of Medicine.

Update: 95% of the grid has been restored in Puerto Rico, but power-blackouts do occur .... Puerto Rico Says New Electric Grid Will Be Easier To Fix, Maintain (Newsy).

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

Why didn't they look at death certificates filed by Puerto Ricans?
Since PR qualifies for Social Security, death certificates would be needed to get proof of death for Social Security benefits.

This study looks like one of those GIGO studies.