A Pessimistic Forecast On What Would Happen If The Korean Peace And Reconciliation Talks Fail

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un. Reuters

Col. David Maxwell, US Army (Ret.), Task & Purpose: A Pessimistic Forecast Of How The North Korea Situation Plays Out in the Coming Years

Here is my most pessimistic assessment of what comes next. I, of course, want to be wrong and if people who have influence can make sure this does not happen I will be very happy to be chastised for having Moriarty’s “negative waves.”

I think the post-summit scenario looks like this:

The Republic of Korea and North Korea are going to work for a peace declaration. They will eventually have a peace treaty because after all this was/is a Korean civil war and the north was the attacker and the north and South were the belligerents. This will require a change to both country’s constitutions to formally recognize the existence of the other country since both claim the entire peninsula and the entire population. They are then going to embark on the confederal reunification process that both Moon Jae-in and Kim Jong Un desire. (This is, of course, very dangerous for the ROK and the Korean people).

Trump’s suspension of the exercises is meant to drive Kim to take substantive action. He is making a major concession to “test” Kim. Either Kim is going to live up to the agreements or we are back to 2017.

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WNU Editor: The people in South Korea have expectations on what comes next, but this pales to the expectations that the people in North Korea now have. Kim Jong-un has raised these expectations, and he must deliver. Failure is not an option for him if all of this goes south.