Next Big Future: USA should build artificial island bases for allies in the age of hypersonic missiles
No one has effective anti-hypersonic missile systems now and there is no anti-hypersonic missile system in development that looks to be very effective or near deployment. This means any major power conflict would make submarines the main effective part of navies or having allied countries with airbases where aircraft can operate.
The US could also spend a few billion dollars for a dredging fleet. The US could help allied countries build artificial islands in key locations like the South China Sea. The US clearly will not be able to win an island construction race with China. However, having more islands and airfields and bases would be effective to ensure the navy and air force could operate under more situations.
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WNU Editor: For the moment the Chinese are the ones who are building artificial islands, and these islands are effective at projecting power. But the problem with having artificial island bases is that you are fixed a target, and you will be obliterated in any serious war.
6 comments:
The problem you mention with artificial islands is similar to the problem I see with aircraft carriers. The big lumbering ships would be sunk very quickly against any kind of even mid level power and swarming tactics such as employed by countries like Iran with small fast naval vessels would very quickly overwhelm rendering them useless or worse very quickly in any real battle. At least this is my "take" on this.
While I don't want to "put words in your mouth" or on your computer, you seem to suggest you think the island building is a waste of resources. "....you will be obliterated in any serious war." I think the same can be said about aircraft carriers. In this case, I hope I am wrong as the US government is spending large sums on these things.
China seems perfectly sure about building them, without the so-called risks you mention...in an age of nukes and hypersonic aircraft, what does remain safe?
Anon,
Excellent point. I suspect that between the information they have been able to gain from espionage against the US combined with their own innovations and what they have been able to gain via joint projects and training with the Russians they are probably ahead of us militarily. As such, they may have found a way to keep these island bases safe from attack.
The operative words are "...are probably ahead of us militarily." The only way to "know" for certain would be an actual military conflict. Now, if one is POTUS and this is what one believes based upon a careful analysis and they are pro-American, we would expect such a person to act accordingly based upon this.
Also, POTUS has additional challenges. US intel is pretty much a combination of incompetent boobs and partisan political hacks who cannot be and should not be relied on for pretty much anything furthermore they seem to have made it clear that they really don't like DJT and did not want him to be president. In such an environment, it would be unwise to rely on them for pretty much anything. Essentially any report in the media or otherwise that cites as primary source "US Intelligence" should be treated with extreme skepticism and should not be treated as actionable based solely upon its analysis. At a minimum, additional sources of corroboration would be needed before accepting any of its findings as truth. In fact, it would probably be best to assume it is NOT accurate unless outside evidence can be found to support it.
So, as stated, China is PROBABLY superior to the United States in terms of military capabilities at least conventional ones ASSUMING our nuclear arsenal actually works. After years of poor maintenance and training, candidate Trump was right to question this. Now he stated the first thing he did upon assuming office was to fix this. I hope he did.
How did we come up with the notion that America is militarily superior to China. We probably did so by relying on nonsensical statements from the US government that America is a "superpower," "exceptional nation," and other such ridiculous nonsense. Thankfully POTUS has generally refrained from speaking such nonsense AND the US government spokespeople likely got their information from US (un)intelligence.
With the expected rising of sea levels I would say it's going to be a huge headache to maintain them. Let the Chinese have their money pits.
"Let the Chinese have their money pits." I would tend to agree. With that said the "expected rising of sea levels" is a myth. If someone is going to wait on that to get rid of this, they are going to wait a VERY LONG TIME, probably forever.
Supplying the Japanese island bases in WWII was the cause of many sunk cargo ships. Their destroyer fleet filled in and suffered great loss also. For a nation of almost no organic oil supplies, using fuel guzzling destroyers to supplement lost cargo ships was terribly inefficient even without considering the significant losses of destroyers they experienced in the resupply effort. China's sitting ducks would be very costly in terms of logistics and defense of those logistics. They remind me of the Maginot line except unlike that defensive gesture I would expect them to be attacked and not bypassed.
On the other hand they do assist their fishing fleet in overfishing yet another part of the ocean to a state of near collapse. Again.
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