The Syrian War Will End When The Last Rebel Stronghold Of Idlib Province Has Fallen

Rebecca Collard, Time: Idlib Could Be the Last Major Battlefield of the Syrian Civil War. But Assad Won’t Take It Easily

On Aug. 9, the Syrian army dropped leaflets on the province of Idlib telling residents that “the war is nearing its end” and urging them to cooperate with government forces. One showed grainy pre-war images of an old woman embracing a soldier; a young man studying; and a leafy, peaceful Damascus street: This is how we were before terrorism, it read. Then came photos of a destroyed neighborhood, a young boy carrying an unexploded shell, and women covered in niqabs and chained together. It’s time to stop the bloodshed and destruction, another flyer said.

For years, Syria’s defeated rebels have fled to the northern territory of Idlib, which was established as a “de-escalation zone” guaranteed by Turkey, Russia and Iran. As the government retook areas like Aleppo and eastern Ghouta, surrendering fighters and their families were sent to Idlib under a deal negotiated by the regime’s ally Russia. Now it is the last major opposition-held region in the country–and the last major obstacle to President Bashar Assad declaring victory. His regime is sending tanks north and has scaled up air attacks in preparation for what could be the final battle in this seven-year-long civil war.

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WNU Editor: The Syrian military will launch an all-out attack on the province of Idlib one day. But I do not see it happening anytime soon. Turkey will treat such an attack as a red-line, and that threat will keep any Syrian government engagement on hold.