Tuesday, August 14, 2018

Why Turkey's Economic Collapse Is Scary


Jim Edwards, Business Insider: The reason Turkey's economic collapse is so scary is that Iran, Russia, and Syria are waiting in the wings

* Lots of things are going wrong in Turkey at once, driven by the collapse of its currency, the lira.
* The West needs Turkey to be strong, as Turkey is a physical buffer between Europe and the war in Syria.
* US sanctions have annoyed Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who says he is now in search of "new friends."
* The worst-case scenario for the West? Potential "new friends" include Iran, Syria, and Russia — Turkey's neighbors, who also suffer from US sanctions.

What if Turkey collapses?

It's not outside the realm of possibility. Turkey's currency is in free fall. Inflation is at 15% and climbing. The Turkish economy could enter a recession. The US has imposed economic sanctions on the country because President Recep Tayyip Erdogan refuses to hand over an American preacher who has been jailed there.

Lots of things are going wrong in Turkey, all at once.

As this map shows, Turkey may not be important economically— in terms of contagion to the rest of the global economy — but it sure is important strategically and militarily.

Read more ....

WNU Editor: The problem is that Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan just won a convincing election where his views on where he wants to lead Turkey are well known, and supported by the majority of the population. It may not be wise to find "new friends" that include Iran, Syria, China, and Russia .... or to implement his economic policies that anyone with a basic understanding of economics knows is foolish .... but Turkish President Erdogan has won a mandate to do just that, and he will.

3 comments:

Anonymous said...

If the EU had any sense they would be feverishly building tall durable fences in Greece,Romania all countries facing the Black sea and Med and positioning naval ships to intercept and return the boats they use. There is sure to be a new tidal wave of migrants via Turkey. Erdogan can play that card for more EU hard currency bribery.

jimbrown said...

Let it fail. This will brink back secularism.

Mike Feldhake said...

I see no reason for concern; if they fail then they are not an issue in Syria/Iraq and the Kurds can finally get some space. Long term; just more dead space to patrol - I wish I owned stock in UAV tech!!