Robert Jervis, War On The Rocks: A Horrifying and Believable Path to Nuclear War with North Korea
Many of us believe that if nuclear missiles were to strike the United States, they would most likely come from North Korea. However, it is hard to dramatize this possibility or to make a convincing case for the exact pathway to a war. Jeffrey Lewis, a respected nuclear analyst, sets this as his task in what he calls a “speculative novel,” The 2020 Commission Report on the North Korean Nuclear Attacks Against the United States. This way of explaining events that have not yet happened is, of course, not a new invention. British writers used it to warn of invasions from the continent in the 19th and early 20th centuries, with the menace coming first from France and then from Germany, and Lawrence Freedman recently outlined how future wars have been seen in numerous contexts. It also follows in the tradition of the Cold War movies Fail Safe, The Bedford Incident, and the unforgettable Dr. Strangelove, which got deterrence theory right because Thomas Schelling was an adviser on the film.
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WNU Editor: I am a sucker for these type of books.
3 comments:
The path to nuclear war with North Korea can be summed up in one word:
China
unless we strike first
I don't know about you but being the first who casts the stone is not my thing..and there would be no way to avoid civilian casualties... imagine melting babies who never get a future. No.. we must not allow it to get that far. Hence assassination and targeted air strikes are our only options unless we know they plan to strike us/just launched. Either way, China will have our blood in its hands. They could have not sold the rocket fuel and the mobile missile launchers to the north Koreans. But they chose to do so and from the get go - way before the trade war with China - weakened sanctions and helped north Korea with material goods too. If north Korea manages to Launch anything at us, China must pay the ultimate price. A Cuban style "a missile launched from north Korea will be treated like an attack stemming from China" policy could do wonders in stopping this in its tracks right now.
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