Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman gestures during a military parade. (photo credit:SAUDI PRESS AGENCY/REUTERS)
Madawi Al-Rasheed, Newsweek: The Slow, Dangerous Implosion of Saudi Crown Prince Muhammad bin Salman
Contrary to the speculation that the Saudi regime would face mass protests during the 2011 Arab uprisings, the regime survived by increasing repression against a wide range of critics, including women activists, Islamists and fellow royals.
Crown Prince Muhammad bin Salman (MBS) now stands alone at the top of the hierarchy, but he has lost many constituencies that allow him to rule without resorting to direct force. This situation is unsustainable and even dangerous. There's been a serious erosion of regime legitimacy, and this is leading to a slow implosion from within.
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WNU Editor: Crown Prince Muhammad bin Salman is the Crown Prince .... and will remain so unless the King decides otherwise .... which I doubt. The problems that the Crown Prince Muhammad bin Salman are facing are multiple. The Yemen war, the economy, a young generation's desire for change, as well as being a country that has many radical Islamists. But what is in his favor is that the alternatives are worse than him. Most Saudis and the Saudi establishment do not want to see their country gripped by sectarian and tribal conflicts that are engulfing countries like Iraq, Syria, and Yemen. And as long as Crown Prince Muhammad bin Salman can project himself as a viable alternative who is trying his best to avoid that type of outcome, he will continue to enjoy the support of most Saudis.
3 comments:
Plus we have Vision 2030 financed by higher oil prices it seems that will have a knock on effect for the USA. Are those prices being manipulated?
Jim,
Oil prices at between 65 to 75 per barrel are at the optimum. At this prices, the producers can make the money they need to be viable and the consumers can purchase oil related products at a reasonable price. Are those prices being "manipulated?" In a sense, yes. It is in American interests to keep these prices around this level for political and economic reasons. I'm pretty sure the Saudis would like to keep them at this level for much the same reason.
While I don't keep up with the daily fluctuation in price, according to a Google search the current price is $70.71 per barrel which is about what I expected it to be. Prices at $100 per barrel as they were at one time are not going to be sustainable. Anyone who staked their economic futures on such a model can expect the end result of this which was not pretty for some when the inevitable drop in price occurred. Should prices ever get to say $200 per barrel and stay at this level for a time someone would actually invent or discover an alternative or it one currently exists bring it to market.
So, in answer to the question, are prices being manipulated? Probably so. At least from the perspective of the US and the Saudis, the manipulation is likely to keep the prices at the current levels of between 65 to 75 per barrel. Thankfully due to the invention of fracking the US now actually may have some degree of ability to actually influence the price of oil now.
As far as the danger of the Saudi crown prince being in danger of being removed, this does appear to be wishful thinking on the part of the media. The media wishes for allot of things. Them wishing for it does not make it reality. While his position and that of the Saudi government appears considerably less stable than that of say Iran, I think predictions of their demise are way to premature. In other words, I see no danger to his continued position of crown prince or to the Saudi government being overthrown.
I am upset with the Princes corruption drive (torture) and his lavish 1/2 billion estate in France.
Other than that he seems to be better than most.
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