Daily Mail: The ‘Final Offensive’ In Syria by Putin and Assad Suddenly Looks Like It’s On Hold
Bombing has stopped, some Syrian army units have redeployed—and anti-Assad demonstrations are erupting. But the rebels may turn on each other.
ISTANBUL—Just a week after Syria’s northern Idlib province seemed on the brink of a massive military assault by the regime of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad backed by Russian air power, tens of thousands of defiant residents took to the streets of Idlib province and beyond on Friday in demonstrations calling for the overthrow of the Assad regime.
They may be far from that goal, but it appears that the threat of annihilation has abated as well.
The impending military operation feared by those on the ground and condemned by Turkey, European nations, and the United States, has not happened.
For the past four days, there have been no airstrikes, no major shelling incidents, no menacing movements of troops. Instead, there is a growing sense that the threat from the regime and Russia had been suspended.
Read more ....
WNU Editor: Some are saying that the reason why this "final offensive" has not occurred is because of this .... Turkey-Russia discord over Idlib defers regime offensive, for now (AFP). But I think there are a number of other reasons why this offensive has been stopped, with the primary one being the lack of preparedness from the Syrian military side. The Syrian and Russian military will be battling against tens of thousands of armed and experienced Syrian rebels who now have no where to go. Such an offensive will need an enormous number of soldiers backed by fire-power .... and I have to wonder if the Syrian military has it. The Iranians and Hezbollah are also remarkably absent from this conflict .... and they have provided a number of times the shock troops for major engagements. So why are the Iranians not on the front lines? Again .... my guess is that they are not ready to commit to such an engagement. I think in the end there will be an offensive .... but not now. The Syrian military and their allies are not ready for it. My prediction. It will happen before spring next year.
8 comments:
WNU,
Or perhaps certain players in this drama are not as certain of Israel's role as they would like to be. This is nothing but a guess.
JH
It's clear that Israel has supported moderate head choppers and will continue doing so. I think Russia is getting more stuff in check before proceeding. No chance they will wait a year
AntiTroll likes his head choppers of the Putin supported Chechnyan variety.
Supplies are poring in to the rebels now.The big question is will they get anti-air weapons.
Why would we buy your sams? said Erdogan.
Never under estimate Russian artillery.
Nuclear weapons aside, Turkey is the 2nd army of NATO. Of course Russia will have the upper hand....but at what cost? Turkey is controlling the Bosphore which is not very good for Russia.
Some negatives for Russia/Syria,
The clean up and cost.
World criticism and aftermath should another city be smashed and huge numbers of refugees needing everything. Turkey seems serious for once and justly so. More mouths for them to feed, house, etc. A new seriousness by Erdogan it seems. Tougher talk that is suddenly believable.
I think Russia and Syria get brownie points for diplomacy and resulting humanitarian solutions and a huge condemnation with resulting impacts on a weakening Russian economy from the rest of an increasingly unified world should they instead use their prior tactics of bombing and creating refugee chaos.
It seems to me our statements on a fight to gain the city by Russia-Syria have toughened in the last week also. They have a new seriousness to their tone is my impression. I think Trump and Mattis should now give Russia-Syria a face saving out via Sun Tzu.
I have not felt any such brinkmanship until the last few days. Especially from Turkey.
Time will tell.
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