Sunday, October 14, 2018
In 1969, Russia and China Almost Went To War
Robert Farley, National Interest: In 1969, Russia and China Almost Went to War. It Might Have Unleashed World War III.
This is why.
In the immediate wake of the conflict, both the USSR and China prepared for war, with the Red Army redeploying to the Far East and the PLA going into full mobilization. The Soviets enjoyed an overwhelming technological advantage over China in 1969. However, Beijing had constructed the largest army in the world, much of which mustered within reach of the Sino-Soviet border. The Red Army, by contrast, concentrated its strength in Eastern Europe, where it could prepare for a conflict with NATO. Consequently, at the moment of the clash, the Chinese could plausibly claim conventional superiority along much of the border.
Americans tend to remember the Cuban Missile Crisis as the most dangerous moment in Cold War brinksmanship. Despite some tense moments, Washington and Moscow resolved that crisis with only the death of U.S. Air Force pilot Maj. Rudolph Anderson Jr.
Read more ....
WNU editor: Many Russians harbor the belief that China's long term goal is to seize eastern Siberia, a point of view that I also hold. And while the Kremlin does pursue major energy contracts with China, Russian businesses tend to avoid doing business with Chinese businesses unless they have to. The only bright spot between the two countries is tourism, but the traffic between the two neighbors is still remarkably small .... Russian Tourism to China Surges: Number of Visitors Doubles in 2017 Over 2016 (Sputnik).
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10 comments:
Though the Chinese would have had the advantage of interior lines the performance of both countries militaries at that time left a lot to be desired. Soviet Union may have had the initial advantage but time would have been against them. The Chinese would have to have avoided major internal civil disruption to be effective at all.
Ps. WNU: Bavarian election results are most interesting.
JH
"Many Russians harbor the belief that China's long term goal is to seize eastern Siberia, a point of view that I also hold."
Amur Acquisition
"By the Treaty of Nerchinsk (1689) the two empires recognized the Stanovoys and the Argun River as their border. This remained stable until the 1840s."
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Amur_Acquisition
Treaties only last 150 years or less it seems.
Amur Acquisition ... that sounds almost like something a Ferengi would say.
Hmmmm .... is President Trump a Ferengi?
JH. I am reading up on the German elections right now. Thanks for the heads-up.
"Russian businesses tend to avoid doing business with Chinese businesses unless they have to"
Now that is a smart move. Otherwise, they would have to count their fingers after every handshake.
"Bavaria election results to 'spark END of Merkel' German leader faces political EARTHQUAKE"
- Daily Express
"Angela Merkel's Bavarian allies lose majority in crushing vote, exit poll shows "
- Communist News Network
Mother is being put out to pasture as a politician emeritus, a much undeserved title in her case.
Hmmmm .... is President Trump a Ferengi?
That is good WNU and quite possibly very true.
Your English and cultural references are coming right along. And quick too. Maybe people should count their fingers when they make deals with you, Chinese included.
What would be the gain for China if they seized eastern Siberia? Just curious.
Hope,
Perhaps the isolation of Russian forces at Vladivostok. If that was to happen the biggest loser would be Russia who would lose their premier naval outlet to the Pacific.
The Gain for China would be to
- Right a wrong
- Make Russia an enemy
- Get a seaport they don't need
- Maybe some mineral wealth (but you should always trade and not seize; Singapore)
- No oil
- Mongolian Fear
- Japanese fear/displeasure
- Korean? (at least one Chinese dynasty died because they were fixated in conquering Korea that they had a massive revolt
- Russian enmity
- more Russian enmity.
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