Thursday, November 29, 2018

What If Ukraine Did Not Give Up Their Nuclear Weapons In 1994

An Ukrainian officer watches a SS-24 nuclear missile booster being extracted from its bunker at a military base in southern Ukrainian town of Pervomaisk in 1998.Gleb Garanich / Reuters file

NBC: Russia-Ukraine sea clash puts spotlight on 1994 agreement

Washington paid half a billion dollars for Ukraine to pass 5,000 nuclear weapons to Russia to be dismantled after brokering the deal.

Twenty five years ago, Ukraine was the world's third-largest nuclear power, with more warheads than the United Kingdom, France and China combined.

The government in Kiev inherited this arsenal after the breakup of the Soviet Union, finding itself in possession of an estimated 5,000 nuclear weapons, more than 170 intercontinental ballistic missiles and several dozen nuclear bombers.

In 1994, Ukraine agreed to dismantle this stockpile in return for a promise from Russia that the country wouldn't be attacked.

But after Russian forces fired at and seized three Ukrainian naval vessels on Sunday, Kiev has pointed to this deal and suggested that the U.S. and Europe should do more to protect it against the vastly superior Russian military.

Read more ....

WNU editor: The main reason why Ukraine "gave-up" its nuclear stockpile in 1994 was not to have a guarantee from Moscow that they would not be attacked by Russia .... which at the time was viewed as impossible but was still put into the treaty as a clause. Kiev gave it up their nuclear arsenal because there was little if any public support to have these weapons on Ukrainian soil, especially since the impact of Chernobyl was still fresh for many Ukrainians. There were also the economic guarantees from Moscow that were just too good to not ignore, coupled with the fact that Ukraine did not have the monies or resources to support and maintain a nuclear arsenal and its delivery systems. Even if this treaty was not signed and Ukraine decided to keep some nuclear weapons .... it would not have changed anything. We are where we are today because a legitimately elected pro-Russian government was overthrown in 2014, and a revolutionary government came to power with an anti-Russian agenda that alienated the Russian dominated eastern part of Ukraine .... and as a result they revolted. I have repeated it numerous times .... to have peace in Ukraine the central government must respect, compromise, and accommodate its Russian-Ukrainian minorities. As long as that does not happen, this destructive war will just continue. And thank God there are no nuclear weapons in Ukraine.

7 comments:

fred said...

the russkies would not be so bold or adventurous, and so the moral is get nukes and don't give them up...India would not give them up as long as Pakistan has them...and the reverse.

Roger Smith said...


I sympathize with Ukraine but have to acknowledge that they have been terrible trading partners with Russia. I'm referring to unpaid bills and the natural gas pipeline situation that was going on awhile back. Russia had a signed agreement for the use of that naval facility also and there were years remaining.

The Russians in Ukraine's east are there in part due to Russia depopulating a portion of the country and moving in Russian citizens during WWII. Tatars numbering 400K were removed from the area for their support of Germany and there may be more incidents of a similar nature that triggered Stalin's depopulating tactic. Lots of guilt on both sides. As usual.

I read last week or so that there was a signed agreement between Russia and Ukraine over access to the Azov[sp] Sea. I have not seen it mentioned again so I don't know what to say about this agreement.

I think Poroshenko is a diplomatic loose cannon and a main cause of this current situation.

B.Poster said...

Roger,

"I think Poroshenko is a diplomatic loose cannon and a main cause of this current situation." As I have said before many times here and elsewhere, without access to all information from the inside and in real time, it is not always going to be possible to "know" what is happening. We can make inferences based upon what is known. Furthermore I have always found it fascinating how different people can view the same information, at the same time, and under the same conditions yet reach completely different conclusions.

With this in mind it appears to me that Poroshenko is not "a main cause" but is instead the primary cause. As I said back in 2014 backing these corrupt chumps was about the dumbest move ever made by a major power. Our leaders have made many a dumb move since then but nothing has changed to alter my initial assessment. Quite the opposite, much has happened to validate it.

It looks to me as though team Poroshenko went out of their way to create further conflict with Russia in this situation. It seems clear to me that he is trying to manipulate us!! Unfortunately it seems to be succeeding on some level. After all Trump did cancel an important meeting with Mr. Putin based upon the actions of this corrupt chump. On the plus side, any support for the chumps seems tepid at best. After all why would we expect Germany to sacrifice perfectly good and needed oil deals with Russia for this corrupt useless chump? Why would the United States want to risk war with arguably the most powerful military force on earth for this chump?

It's time to jettison the Poroshenko government. I was hoping this might finally be an impetus to get this done. It still might be.

If Ukraine had nuclear weapons, perhaps they would not be trying to suck America and others into their fight. They offer nothing of value and supporting them is extremely costly and risky.

The "deal maker" should have easily figured out he is being manipulated by Poroshenko and company and made it plain he is going to continue diplomatic efforts with Russia and Putin. He does have any eastern European spouse. This may be clouding his judgment and during the campaign he rightly called out a number of countries but I don't remember him calling out any of the former Soviet or eastern bloc countries who I believe are arguably among the worst abusers of America.

Very interesting history lesson. I shall need to do some more research on this one. "Lots of guilt on both sides. As usual." This generally sums up most conflicts between nations and ethnic groups quite well. I don't think this is something we are going to be able to solve. We may be able to have a constructive role. I think the first step is going to break off all support for Poroshenko and his team. Such people are corrosive to all that is good, decent, and in American interests.

Interestng

Anonymous said...

dear trollski
nukes..yes. and your comrades would slink off

adam said...

Thanks for the write-up WNU Editor. I've always wondered myself why they didn't keep a very small stock pile of a dozen or weapons. Your post explained it well.
-a

Anonymous said...

Russia is stealing Ukrainian oil off the shore from Odessa.

Anonymous said...

If Czechoslovakia had nuclear weapons, perhaps they would not be trying to suck America and others into their fight against NAZI Germany.





And B Poster would not have a trolling job.