WNU Editor: I do not live in the U.S. .... but I do follow the news closely. So my view is that of an outsider who wants to understand what is happening politically in the U.S.. And while I do have my own biases and preferences .... I am also someone who wants to know who will be in charge of the new Congress in January. So here is my analysis and predictions.
First things first .... the conventional wisdom from the media is that the Democrats are going to win big in this election cycle .... Cook Political Report outlook: Democrats gain 30-40 seats in House, up from 25-35 (Washington Examiner). Political campaign contributions .... a usual sign on who people with money are betting on .... are also heavily favoring the Democrats .... Wall Street's campaign contributions are flowing mostly to Democrats (CBS). There is also the historical aspect of mid-term elections where the President's Party is expected to lose a number of seats, and coupled this with many Republican incumbents deciding to not run .... the future does not look good for the GOP. I should also add the role that the main stream media is playing, which at the moment is overwhelmingly negative on the Republican Party.
But while many are predicting a Democrat blue wave, I am seeing news reports that are contradicting this narrative. Case in point .... for as long as I can remember it has always been conventional wisdom that early voting favors Democrats. But that is not happening now.. More here .... 24 million early-voting ballots already counted, more than 2014 (NBC). I should also add that Republicans have a history of not telling pollsters on who they support .... something that all of us learned in the 2016 Presidential race. I am also checking the crowds that show up for the rallies .... and that has been quite an eye-opener. President Trump has tens of thousands showing up .... Democrat leaders like former President Obama and former Vice President Biden have crowds that can only fill up small high-school auditoriums. Then there are the issues .... but with a booming economy, record low jobless numbers, and a migrant crisis that many Americans do believe is real, the Democrat message is being ignored with the exception of one, and that is to get President Trump .... Don’t fall for Pelosi’s claims of civility: Democrats will be ruthless if they take power (Spectator). Is this a winning issue for the Democrats? Democrat progressives clearly want this to happen and it is galvanizing them to go to the polls, but do a majority of Americans want this? Is this what blue-collar Democrats want? I do not think so, but we shall see this Tuesday. As for my prediction. Significant Republican gains in the Senate, and little if any change in the House.
I will be posting a final analysis on election day.
12 comments:
For what it is worth I believe you are right on.
yes, the blue wave is flushing down the commode and entering the sewers
Good. We all are better off this way. When the Democrats were ready to make a theater out of the Kavanaugh confirmation hearing, including throwing him and two key pillars of our legal system (presumption of innocence and due process) under the bus, I knew they had completely lost their way.
Not punishing the Democrat's behavior at the ballot box will only invite more mob rule and shrieking hysteric people invading people's privacy, ending civility and getting in people's faces because Maxine Waters said so. No. We disagree in a civil matter, otherwise you are just like a mob and fascist. Freaking intimidation tactics, commanded from the highest ranks - in full daylight. But they call DJT the tyrant. Sure.
You are a brave man WNU making predictions.
A lot of pundits will not including the Russian speaking one in the U.S.
There is no rule of law when many many senators are willing to engage in fraud.
Woman Who Accused Brett Kavanaugh of Rape Admits to Judiciary Committee She Lied
If Democrats win Tuesday the 'rule of law' will be as capricious as than made by Prince Salman.
Anyone remember the rule of law after the chopped off the French king's head?
They sat in parliament. They deliberated, etc. They passed laws and was there a rule of law?
Last anon. It is unbelievable what Avanetti and that woman did together. No one believed them -- not only did they hurt Democrats, and arguably Ford's case - but they also smeared a family man, a potential supreme court judge. And they conspired about it. How they are not in jail, is incredible. Instead, he gets to run for the Democratic presidential ticket. Are you kidding me? Will this hypocrisy never end? If you haven't voted yet, do go vote! It needs to stop
I voted nearly a straight ticket.
If the Republican did not have an opponent, I did not vote for them as a measure of protest. If I get mail form them it is not to explain how they governed or their philosophy, it is asking for money. Sometimes when they ask for money they send a 1/2 ass questionaire, which they may or may not read.
I voted not to retain any judges. I do not know their parties, but the the fewer votes they get hopefully the more they or the system think about it.
The were some libertarian and conservative party candidates. I am sorry I did not research that more but between job, living and circuses such as the Kavanaugh hearing it sucks up all the oxygen (maybe by design).
I am following important news stories such as people being shot for basically no reason outside city hall in broad daylight by registered Democrats. I think the victims crime for which a Democrat executed him was being a white-black. Sort of like George Zimmerman being a white-Hispanic. This is the lingo and the racism that we learn sitting on the knee of the NYT.
Actually the Democrats had cause to shoot the young man. There had been an argument you see and that gave the Democrats all the reason they needed. That and to chase the young man a mile through town. You cannot police everything and that is where jobs comes in. With jobs people are less likely to commit crime.
At least this time there was not gunfire exchanged between vehicle occupants speeding down a major thoroughfare at noon.
But we still have the catch and release when it come to the 2 cars stolen per day in the metro area. Those dudes are going to grow up to be some heinous criminals in 6 to 10 years time having been raised on Democrat family values.
Hell of it is, when young Democrats-in-the-making steel a vehicle, they usually damage it and one or two others. The only reason car insurance is not less expensive by 1/2 is because ...
Democrats. They love the juvies and they love their illegals.
Democrats run the city, the county and the state. Things are better without BumbleF___ not running the nation. Next year it will be time to move out of state. Stupid guber will raise taxes causing more people to leave the state. But hey goobers are known for raising taxes while they avoid their own legally and illegally.
I do not know if Ford is telling the truth.
I know she is telling some lies. It might be partial lies or all lies, but she is lying. she may also have been raped. She may even have been raped by Kavanaugh. For sure I do not know. I am 99.999% sure she was not raped by Kavanaugh.
I do know that everyone after her has lied. I do know that Ford was really fuzzy on details and it looked like deceitfully so. I do know she scrubbed her social media and she is a big time activist.
I do know that the Democrat Senators pulled this last minute ace from their nether regions as pocket nuke to obliterate Kavanaugh and it didn't work, but the ace card had umbral sheen to it and stank.
At least the skanks that came after her are being prosecuted for lying. It is important.
Kavanaugh will come up in 2020 election and if the Republicans are not ready with a rebuttal, the Democrats will lie and lie and run with it.
I think the Polls are worse now than ever so I expect a Red wave. However; there are many people who are just dumb and will vote Dem for dumb reasons; I.e. Trump is divisive. Wow, what a reason to vote, he is simply fighting back against the Dem intimidation tactic which makes those voters weak as they fall prey to the tactic. This is why the Media plays this card, to keep the weak in line.
Democrat Dirty Trickster in North Dakota have taken to Facebook to tell hunter that if they vote, they may lose their hunting rights on other states.
And we thought we just had a problem with the Russians.
Whatever made the Russians think they could outclass the Democrats, when it came to dirty tricks?
I refuse to answer any polls. I know who pollsters claim to be, but I don’t trust them to not lie . I also don’t trust them not to use my responses against me. That’s also why I use a nom de net for my comments here. Opinions can have very bad impacts.
If pollsters would pay me for my answers, I might respond, but I won’t give up for free what they get paid for.
Gadfly,
You're very very right.
JH
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