Silvia Amaro, CNBC: Brexit: Here’s what happens now
* But there’s a high possibility that the deal will be voted down — risk consultancy Eurasia Group assigns a 75 percent probability for that outcome.
* If the agreement is voted down by U.K. lawmakers, the government could try to extend the deadline of March 29 (when the U.K. is officially due to leave the European Union) or the country crashes out of the EU without a deal.
There is one thing currently uniting Prime Minister Theresa May with her 27 EU counterparts: They all want the Brexit withdrawal agreement to be approved by the U.K. Parliament.
But there’s a high possibility that the deal will be voted down — risk consultancy Eurasia Group assigns a 75 percent probability for that outcome. In the eyes of the U.K. prime minister and the other 27 EU leaders, this would bring uncertainty and difficulties at all levels for businesses, consumers and citizens.
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WNU Editor: Those who want to stay in the EU are predicting doom and gloom .... Brexit deal 'will cost UK £100bn' a year by 2030 (BBC). Those who support this Brexit are predicting doom and gloom .... Britain will head into unknown if Brexit deal is rejected: May (Reuters). My prediction .... this debate will be ongoing until the final day.
2 comments:
This was a desperate, self preserving move for the UK. It knows that the EU model will fail over the long term in its current form. I am sure the UK calculus includes noting the short to intermediate term ramifications for its decision, but ultimately this is going preserve the UK in the long run compared to the EU countries that are in the EU for the long run. As things get worse you'll first start seeing many of the Eastern European states leaving the EU arrangement, and eventually more of the Western ones who are able to react to leftist internationalism and its destructive policies in time. I see a nationalist reactionary movement across Europe in the next 20 years as these countries begin to fall apart, losing their culture and domestic stability to leftist politicians who put foreigners before their own people and destroying these countries one by one. I appreciate the United States being a "melting pot" within carefully calculated policies, but Europe certainly should not be; especially not by socialist, etho-masochist leftists who create policy based of feeling bad about European colonial history.
What surprises me about this deal is what it doesn't cover outside the Irish question, the Rock, UK financial obligations. What it doesn't cover is trade, security, natural resources as those are left to a 26 page general statement. Given all the time wasted on these negotiations, I am amazed so much is left to do. Also May agreeing to stay in the EU customs union indefinitely as UK awaits the EU agreeing to let them out. Simply amazing. Then President Trump rounding on May today suggesting it won't be possible to have Free Trade Agreement with UK under these UK-EU agreement.
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