SCMP: The tiny island with a big role in US plans for the South China Sea
* The bare-bones Lombrum Naval Base on tiny Manus Island could be a key part of efforts to push back against Chinese influence in regional waters
* But the big task ahead for Washington and Canberra is to calm nerves in Papua New Guinea and Indonesia about the base
Papua New Guinea’s now-bare-bones Lombrum Naval Base, once a major allied staging point in the Pacific War against Japan, could be the crucial jigsaw piece that America’s strategic planners have been searching for as they try to push back against China’s rising assertions in regional waters.
But as Washington and Canberra forge ahead with plans to upgrade the facility – and potentially deploy assets there in the future – strategic observers say the two stalwart allies must tread carefully to avoid tripping up another country friendly to both: Indonesia.
For now there are no signs that the upgrade has set off alarms at the highest levels of President Joko Widodo’s government, but comments this week by one mid-level official suggest there may be pockets of anxiety.
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WNU Editor: Papua New Guinea And Indonesia should be more nervous on what China is doing rather than what the U.S. and Australia are doing.
5 comments:
Editor,
You may be right that they should be more worried about what China is doing. With that said they may be thinking mid to long range.
Based upon my "take" on this America is a declining power that may not even exist in the next 5, 10, 15 years. If this "take" is accurate assuming America does survive its ability and willingness to carry on any kind of role in the South China Sea is going to be coming to an end sooner rather than later. In contrast, China is a major world power, will be for the foreseeable future, and are essentially going to be a major force in the South China for next few decades if not centuries. If their "take" on this is the same as mine is, then naturally Indonesia and Papua New Guinea are going to be very concerned about what America may do here. After all it makes little sense to try and meet the needs of a declining power whose time in the region is ending sooner rather than later all while ratcheting up tensions with the major power who is essentially forever.
For that matter, why is Australia hitching itself to the declining power? Perhaps it is emotional attachment that flies in the face of common sense. As with anything where our information is limited and we do not have access to full information in real time, my "take" may be wrong. If my analysis is correct, naturally certain policies on the part of the leadership class should flow from this analysis. Perhaps Indonesia and Papua New Guinea and Indonesia have reached the same conclusions I have. If so and given their location, it would make little sense to side with the US and risk alienating China. Part of realistic assessment of things is recognizing reality and working within it. Reality is what it is. It is NOT what we wish it to be.
Why is Papua New Guinea concerned? They obviously invited Australia and the USA into the base.
"why is Australia hitching itself to the declining power?" Interim measure perhaps in the hope, at this point, of picking up a lot of wealthy folk leaving a sinking ship.
The new old world is perhaps burning out, dying, while the older old world is on the cusp of re-birth and greatness.
Bob,
Supposing you are right perhaps they want to "cash out." From the tone of your posts, it appears to me that you actually want America and perhaps the "west" to die. Perhaps I misread you.
I do not want America to die. I want America to succeed. If one does believe that the "older world" is on the cusp of re-birth and greatness, then someone wishing to have long range success who is not part of the group would naturally want to act accordingly and should they find themselves as leaders of America or another "western" country it would make sense based upon this analysis to try and position themselves accordingly.
B. Poster
Actually you brought up the issue of America dying. It doesn't have to be that way as long as America accepts that there can be more than one great entity in the world, as in it isn't an all or nothing proposition, and work within the confines established by the limitations of the globe. Actually, I thought I was responding to your question.
As a start, the US may need to get out of other people's countries, Afghanistan in particular, but as you are aware, there are others, and attend to its own problems at home. Going head to head is a recipe for disaster and when it comes to surviving disasters, China has gained a lot of experience over the millennia.
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