Saudi Arabia's plans for nuclear follow the construction of the UAE's Barakah nuclear power plant. due to come online next year. Arun Girija / Enec / AFP
Paul R. Pillar, National Interest: Why Saudi Arabia Will Acquire Nuclear Weapons
If the Trump administration continues to turn its nuclear negotiations into a boondoggle, then nothing will prevent Riyadh from building bombs.
The Trump administration’s handling of nuclear negotiations with Saudi Arabia promises to lay bare some realities about security issues and nuclear programs in that part of the world that the administration has refused to acknowledge. A front-page article by David Sanger and William Broad in the New York Times reviews some of the still-unresolved questions. The Saudi regime insists on producing its own nuclear fuel, which would be different from terms the United States has negotiated with some other states, including the United Arab Emirates, that have sought U.S. assistance in developing their nuclear programs. The Saudis have balked at comprehensive international inspections to detect any work on nuclear weapons. And Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MbS) has explicitly threatened to develop nuclear weapons, ostensibly in response to any similar development by Iran.
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WNU Editor: Saudi Arabia has the monies and resources plus a number of people who can learn (if not already) how to develop and build nuclear weapons. The question is .... does the Saudi King and the Crown Prince believe it is in their interest to acquire them even if it means international sanctions and blow-back from the international community that will last for years (like what happened for Pakistan and India when they developed their nuclear arsenal). My gut tells me .... guided by intelligence and experience .... that there is already a plan to develop such a weapons program. The question that remains unanswered is when to initiate it.
5 comments:
The Saudi’s paid for Pakistans nuclear weapons program. They already have access to whatever they want.
So, if I'm understanding you correctly, the question is not "will Saudi Arabia develop nuclear weapns." The question is "when" will they do so.
I'd suggest sooner rather than later. Given the US obsession and over reaction to the death of a "journalust" who and those he supported were/are far worse than the Saudi government, it appears to me that with the possible exception of Trump the only reasonable conclusion would be that the US government is untrustworthy. At most, Trymp will only be in office until the end of 2024 and his power is limited. As such, the Saudis are going to look beyond Trump.
As Saudi Arabia did pay for Pakistan's program, I'd assume they have full access, I'd assume they have the know how already, and I'd assume the plan is in p I ace to get started at a time of choosing by the leadership.
They may already have such weapons. After all it's questionable at best to assume tgat the combination of incompetent boobs and political hacks who make up US (un)intelligence would be able to detect it.
While sanctions may work against small weak countries who lack allies, otherwise they don't seem particularly effective and actually have negative utility. It's likely that it wouldn't even be possible to sanction a najor oil producer like Saudi Arabia.
There are heavy rumors that they already have primitive nuclear devices.
Probably no easy way of delivering the payload however.
In the future they might push to have IRBM capability. However, as it is, with Iran being limited. I do not see the Saudis taking the heat required to develop such a system.
Like other comments have said, KSA already has nuclear capabilities in some non-specific terms. The devices may not be on Saudi soil, and the Pakistanis may never actually hand them over if pressed, but the rumors of saudi-owned warheads sitting on Pakistani soil for political reasons have been tacitly acknowledged from time to time by western defense figures who are "in the know".
Don’t forget the Saudi’s bought the DongFeng 3A ballistic missile from China. This missile was designed to carry a nuclear payload. Range is 4000km.
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