James Holmes, National Interest: Is Taiwan's Military Really Ready to Take on China?
We asked one of the world's leading experts that very question.
Chinese president Xi Jinping issued his latest threat to Taiwan during what the BBC artfully calls “a speech marking 40 years since the start of improving ties” between the communist-ruled mainland and the Republic of China (ROC) on Taiwan. Xi exhorted Taiwanese to accept that they “must and will be” unified with the mainland. Sheesh. If forty years of improving ties culminate in threats to wipe out your negotiating partner’s political existence, I’d shudder to think how forty years of deteriorating ties across the Taiwan Strait would have turned out.
But Xi’s remarks do warrant taking stock of Taiwan’s defense afresh. To measure the adequacy of Taiwan’s defense, first, survey its overall strategic posture and then the state of its land, air and sea power. If the ROC armed forces are sufficient to discharge the tasks entrusted to them by the political leadership in Taipei, then the island is in sound shape to uphold its independence. If Taipei has assigned the military more to do than it can reasonably do, then trouble looms: missions must be cut or capabilities expanded until ends and means are in sync.
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WNU Editor: They probably can do so today. But 5 to 10 years from now at current trends of Chinese military growth, I have doubts.
5 comments:
I think this is less so a military question, rather than a question of resolve:
Do Taiwanese want to remain free?
If the answer is overwhelmingly yes, then China will not be able to take Taiwan. Sure, they could kill anyone on the island - they have enough nukes after all - but in reality, if they do feel they are brothers and sisters, how much blood would you be willing to shed, to make your brother or sister join "your country" and give up their way of living?
Any year that passes and all things being equal - in my opinion - makes it more likely that Taiwan will remain an independent state. Taiwan citizens are richer, healthier, happier, live longer than their mainland China counterparts. So they must be doing something right. And, after China subdued Hongkongese, including abducting book dealers who published material the party doesn't agree with, people around the world certainly must think twice before even stepping into China again. I used to travel to China a lot for business, but they are so crazy at the moment that I would not want to go to China even if it's in my favorite 5 star hotel. They can just abduct you for any reason and keep you in their sleep deprivation cells for week. No thank you. No business meeting is that important.. especially not if Thailand and Vietnam can produce it more cheaply for you and treat you much, much better.
no
You must give everyone a gun so maybe think twice before attack
can not stop an invasion but might drive back the invaders
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