Robert Farley, National Interest: Check Out All of the Places World War III Could Start in 2019
Any guesses?
The flashpoints may change over time, but the fundamental foundations of conflict—the decay of U.S. military hegemony and of the global international order that has accompanied it—mean that the near future will likely become more hazardous than the recent past.
The world has avoided war between major power war since 1945, even if the United States and the Soviet Union came quite close on several occasions during the Cold War. In the first two decades following the fall of the Berlin Wall, great power war seemed virtually unimaginable. Today, with China’s power still increasing and Russia’s rejection of the international order apparently complete , great power conflict is back on the menu.
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WNU Editor: I just do not see World War III breaking out anywhere right now. Even a major war .... on the Korean peninsula, Pakistan-India, etc. .... the odds of that happening in the near future are remote at best. But I also know that one should never say never. There is always the possibility of something unpredictable happening that can change everything.
5 comments:
Triggering WW3 would be difficult because once nukes start flying everyones going to keep out of the conflict. Things will continue with small clashes breaking out across the globe.
I think come 2019-2020 it will be China that will attempt to initiate a conflict, they have the ambition to become a global power but have little to no experience.
" but have little to no experience."
What are you talking about Willis?
China has plenty of experience.
1.) They entered the Korean War.
2.) They participated in the Vietnam War. They sent hundreds of thousands of troops to Vietnam
"The semiofficial China News Service said Tuesday in a report monitored in Hong Kong that China sent 320,000 soldiers to Vietnam during the 1960s. It also spent over $20 billion to support Hanoi's regular North Vietnamese Army and Viet Cong guerrilla units"
3.) China fought Vietnam.
4.)China fought Taiwan
China had skirmishes and such with India and the USSR
"After their retreat, the KMT retained the offshore part from the original Lianjiang County located on Matsu Islands, and also all of Kinmen County. In July 1958 the PRC began massing forces opposite the two islands and began bombarding them on 23 August, triggering the Second Taiwan Strait Crisis. On 4 September 1958, the PRC announced the extension of its territorial waters by 20 kilometres (12 mi) to include the two islands. However, after talks were held between the USA and PRC in Warsaw, Poland later that month, a ceasefire was agreed and the status quo reaffirmed"
Nathu La and Cho La clashes With 130 to 500 people killed this makes it just short of a war. If you use the definition of 1,000 killed and at least one nation state involved.
Sino-Soviet border conflict
Just 1.4 million troops involved a a few hundred dead that almost led to nuclear war.
USSR planned nuclear attack on China in 1969
I can see why a kumbaya liberal taught by shit American schools would be so dismissive of China going to war.
https://www.historyanswers.co.uk/history-of-war/the-sino-soviet-border-war-why-the-ussr-nearly-nuked-china/
"The Soviet Union was on the brink of launching a nuclear attack against China in 1969 and only backed down after the US told Moscow such a move would start World War Three, according to a Chinese historian." -The Telegraph
The Chinese helped the Vietnamese train their military commanders; reorganize their defense and financial systems, including tax and fiscal policy; and create a solid economic base. They also helped the Vietnamese to mobilize the peasants to support war through land reform campaigns. Overall, there was a massive transfer of the Chinese experience of making revolution to the Vietnamese.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China_in_the_Vietnam_War
Don't forget Chinese troops are in Africa getting some experience. How much we do not know because shit American media does not widely report it.
The agency report cited "The History of the People's Republic of China," published by the official State Archives Publishing House, as saying that more than 4,000 Chinese soldiers were killed in the war.
https://www.deseretnews.com/article/46743/CHINA-ADMITS-IT-SENT-TROOPS-TO-FIGHT-THE-US-IN-VIETNAM.html
At least 16 Russian soldiers died in Vietnam
https://books.google.com/books?id=7t-XPOvtWUkC
If nukes start flying no one would be spared.So the most logical thing is to join it not desperately try to keep out.I a war breaks out that escalates into nuclear use 'morons' will try to keep out hoping to avoid the worst.But in reality the best thing to do is to enter it.Because all nuclear powers have the 'hit' list the countries that they would target in a nuclear war should such a war ever break out regardless of whether those countries targeted them or not.So if say India got nuked by Pakistan in a hypothetical war it would not only retaliate against Pakistan but also target China even if China said its neutral.If China gets hit by indian nukes it would not only target India back but also nuke Taiwan and so on.Basically once the nukes start flying it escalates and escalates.In such a world staying out of the war because you're hoping out of sheer desperation that you'll be spared is naive and foolhardy.The most logical course of action is to join the war with full might.Reason is simple if you're gonna get hit regardless might as well be on the offensive.
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