A U.S. flag is seen during a welcoming ceremony in Beijing, China, November 9, 2017. REUTERS/Thomas Peter
Gordon G. Chang, National Interest: Will a Failing China Attack America?
"That’s an especially disturbing possibility now that belligerent Chinese officers are convincing themselves they can launch surprise attacks on the U.S. Navy and kill thousands of Americans."
“The United States is most afraid of death,” said Rear Admiral Luo Yuan on December 20, 2018, to an audience in the southern Chinese city of Shenzhen. “We now have Dong Feng-21D, Dong Feng-26 missiles. These are aircraft carrier killers. We attack and sink one of their aircraft carriers. Let them suffer 5,000 casualties. Attack and sink two carriers, casualties 10,000. Let’s see if the U.S. is afraid or not?”
Luo, who has a history of bellicose statements, is nonetheless seen as reflecting thinking in the senior ranks. He was the second Chinese military officer in December, just days before the fortieth anniversary of America’s recognition of the People’s Republic on January 1, to publicly urge an unprovoked attack on American vessels.
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WNU Editor: Rhetoric aside. If China is going to attack anyone, to start a war by choice, it will be Taiwan.
4 comments:
When things go downhill in China, Taiwan might be attacked to cater to the local audience, perhaps establish martial law and sign this as a quick win. BUT, if they cannot win (as you posted, it might happen), then Xi will lose it all. He's threading on thin ice as it is.
No. China will not launch a conv/nuke military strike or attack on anyone.
If they did, they would just much more quickly become the global pariah that they are on a slower track to becoming now.
Who would be their allies in an invasion of Taiwan? It would be political allies only as Taiwan is well beyond the reach of the forces of Pakistan or Zimbabwe. Would Russia assist? Probably not. Would Russia back China politically? Maybe.
Every other Navy and Air Force on the region (besides NorK) would be on alert against and very likely harass Chinese forces. Every Western Democracy would shun them.
INTERESTING,
TIMES,
R,
Russia has already give its position: they will not intervene, but they will supply China. Clear and realistic.
One problem for China: if America don't take part of the fight, but supply a lot Taiwan, the risk of shooting on American force is all but negligible. Consequence: America can use the 5th of NATO which make China at war with America and Europe (UK and France are Nuclear power too). China cannot afford that militarily and economically.
Nato and the US would be at war with China. On top much of Asia- from Japan to Australia to India. 0 chance for china to win. Even India alone would be tough. On top Japan. On top south Korea. On top Australia. .Nato. .ze Germans, the US... the list is about 100 countries and 2-3bn people (india alone is over 1bn)..
China may act like a big player but most is show. They copy the same tactics from Singapore. .building skyscrapers to impress gullible westerners or cnn parrots. A good percentage of those building will have to be torn down soon as they were built without building codes during the rush and it's anyone's guess how safe they are and for how long. Plus many are empty. We're talking thousands of tens of thousands of skyscrapers that were built during the rush. That alone is a trillion cost sitting right there for the housing bubnle to collapse which will happen as certain as the sun will rise in the east. On top the aging population. On to the trade war and the already allowing economy which is predicted to be extremely bad this year. So Xi must do something. It he loses face, it might be enough to end his life long emperor membership. And an early retirement typically means you'll be accused of "corruption" and spend 20 years in a shity Chinese prison. The worst that will happen to trump its impeachment and he'll be fine with the 3-5 bn he had before becoming president (Obama made about 1bn in speeches and book deals after. .).. so yeah. .the stakes for Xi are much higher with less good options. That's one of the reasons why he asked for the 3 month delay. Trump knows that every day that passes, things get tighter over there. China has made so many enemies in the east, so many factories are leaving (my company moved out about a year ago to Thailand and Vietnam)... I think the emperors clothes will soon come off and it won't be pretty. Typically a regime in its last phase clamps down. ..look at the concentration camps. .look st the mass surveillance against anyone daring to speak out in China. It might be much worse than the markets even predict. Much -so much- in China is about creating an illusion. That's their art. If you buy into it, it's their strength.
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