In 2017 Caracas awarded licenses to Russian oil giant Rosneft for the development of two offshore gas fields, via Reuters.
Zero Hedge: This Russian Oil Giant Is Driving Putin Toward Showdown With Trump In Venezuela
“Russia is now so deeply invested in the Maduro regime that the only realistic option is to double down,” writes senior fellow at the Carnegie Moscow Center Alexander Gabuev.
He details in a Financial Times op-ed that Moscow-based state oil giant Rosneft owns two offshore gas fields in Venezuela and further has "stakes in assets boasting more than 20m tonnes of crude." But as embattled President Nicolas Maduro faces US-led efforts to oust him in favor of opposition leader Juan Guaido, billions are on the line for Moscow making its interest in preserving the regime run deep.
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WNU Editor: Russia has tens of billions on the line in Venezuela and on President Maduro. But IMHO they are going against history on this one. Everything is dependent on Venezuela paying off its debts to Russia by exporting oil. But with oil production in decline because there has been little if any investment in supporting its infrastructure, this is one business deal that is not going to work out.
4 comments:
Invested in Venezuela and its oil, yes. Maduro? Why? Suppose Guaido comes to power. Certainly he would be more pro-American, at least at first. Would he be free to ignore debt to Russia and China though?
You are better of consider it a lost just like las Vagas suckers or start a big war fools
Hell is not a bad place you think you fool
Daniel,
You ask "would he be free to ignore debt to Russia and China though?" This is a very good question. I would say the answer is a very resounding "no!!" If he is to assume power, this is going to be the starting point. This debt will need to paid in full with perhaps some minor modifications. If Guaido is to come to power, this is going to be the first thing he's going to need to do is to pledge a commitment to pay back this debt along with a concrete plan to do so otherwise the Russians and the Chinese will never allow his ascension.
"Certainly he would be more pro-American, at least at first." Due in part to poor messaging on our part in the region combined with perhaps some ill thought out actions in Central and South America we are NOT very popular there. As such, any leader in this region wishing to remain in power or arise to power cannot afford to be pro-American very long. We are currently essentially a liability to anyone in this region having such aspirations.
Add to this the notion that China is an up and coming power and Russia, while it has numerous problems, is very stable politically and has one of the world's top militaries and intelligence services combined with having some very powerful allies making it well positioned to be a major power for quite some time. In contrast, America appears to be a declining power combined with being very unstable politically. As such, it would seem to make little strategic sense for anyone wishing to advance in the Central and South American political systems to ally with America.
Unfortunately the current plan for Venezuela looks little different to me than previous failed schemes. As such, I do not expect a good ending for us on this. Hopefully I am wrong.
From my perspective, at least two major mistakes have already been made. 1.)America was very quick to recognize Guaido. In fact, we may have been the first with other nations in the region following suit. By being first we effectively sealed his fate to failure as he will be forever linked to the hated Americans. We should have waited on the other nations in region to go first then once support is solid then step in. This way he is not linked to us. 2.)As I understand it, military action is not off the table. The only way this could be considered would be if others in the region authorize it and they would need to assume full command and control of the entire operation. This way it eliminates the "bad optics" of making this look like an American interests.
While perhaps a long answer to the question, I do think Guaido and/or any new Venezuelan government will need to pay back the debt. For that matter, if the US government were overthrown, I think it highly unlikely the foreign creditors would allow the new US government to default on the debts of the old one. I don't expect Venezuela's creditors to be any different and not only do I not expect them to be any different they have tremendous power to ensure they are paid back.
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